Amid speculations that Israel could plan a second round of air strikes on Iran, the Chinese social media is buzzing with reports that Tehran is desperate to buy the Chinese J-10C fighter jets on an emergency basis.
However, rather than celebrating the prospect of having a second international customer for the 4.5-generation Chinese fighter jet, Chinese military experts are cautioning Tehran that the fighter jet sans supporting network would not be very effective against the formidable Israeli air force.
Notably, until now, Pakistan remains the only customer for the J-10CE, even though the fighter jet has been pitched to many countries, including Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Azerbaijan.
Furthermore, the fighter jet has been combat tested during the recent India-Pakistan war in May, and if Pakistani claims are accurate, then the combination of the Chinese J-10C fighter jets and long-range PL-15 missiles shot down multiple Indian Air Force (IAF) jets, including Rafale.
India has rejected the claims but admitted loss of one Rafale aircraft due to a technical snag. India also said it shot down 6 PAF aircraft in the air, while many others were damaged on the ground.
Following the India-Pakistan war, Beijing renewed its pitch for J-10C fighter jets for multiple countries, including Indonesia, Azerbaijan, and Egypt, marketing it aggressively as ‘Rafale killer’.
Such was the fervour of the Chinese marketing blitz that French intelligence officials even complained that China deployed its embassies to spread doubts about the performance of Rafale jets.
However, despite this high-voltage marketing blitz, Indonesia doubled down on Rafales, signing a letter of intent for 12 additional Rafales in June 2025, following the initial order for 42 Rafale fighter jets signed in 2022.
Furthermore, despite the J-10C participating in a joint air exercise with the Egyptian air force, the ‘Eagles of Civilization 2025’ war drill, Cairo has not yet confirmed a deal for the fighter jet.
Given this background, Beijing should have rejoiced at the prospect of finally finding a second customer for its “combat-tested” fighter jet.
However, the timid commentary by Chinese experts in the country’s social media is curious to say the least. The question then is, why are Chinese netizens not celebrating the potential sale of the J-10C to Tehran?
Iran’s Interest In J-10C
According to a long blog post on the Chinese micro-blogging site Sohu, Iran has been interested in Chinese fighter jets for over a decade now.
In 2015, Tehran planned to purchase at least 150 Chinese fighter jets, but the deal was shelved due to a disagreement over payment terms.
Iran said at the time that a severe foreign exchange shortage prevented it from paying in cash. The decades-long Western sanctions on Iran meant that the country had little foreign exchange reserves.
Fast forward to 2025, and Iran’s situation is now even more precarious. Originally planning to buy 150 aircraft, Iran reduced that to 40, and then tested the waters by offering to purchase 10 fighter jets as “trials.”
According to the blog post, Chinese military companies were not happy and privately complained, “They’ve (Iran) already defaulted on the Su-35 down payment, and they’re still trying to offer ‘installment payments’.”
Iran’s interest in the J-10CE, it said, is not without reason, as the fighter jet performed spectacularly during the India-Pakistan war in May.
“That day, Pakistan’s J-10CE single-handedly challenged Indian Rafale, Su-30MKI, and MiG-29 fighters. The key to this success lay in two key factors: First, the PL-15E missile, with a range of 200 kilometers, outperformed the Meteor missile carried by the Indian Rafale by 50 kilometers, enabling it to strike from beyond the enemy’s range.”
“Secondly, the electronic warfare pods directly blacked out Indian fighter jets’ radars and disrupted communications.”
The price of the J-10CE, which is nearly one-third of the cost of the Rafale, and China’s industrial capacity to deliver aircraft within six months were added attractions for Iran, it said.
Chinese experts claimed that compared to the Russian Su-35, which Iran earlier tried to purchase, the J-10CE is cheaper, has lower maintenance costs, and is more capable.
So, Iran’s interest in the J-10CE is obvious; the question is, why is Beijing not excited about a potential new customer?
Why Beijing May Not Be Excited?
China’s lukewarm response to Iran’s offer stems from multiple factors.
Firstly, as Chinese experts claim on social media, “Iran is infiltrated like a sieve, and China is worried about technology leaks.”
A running joke in the Chinese military is: “Selling fighter jets to Iran is like giving blueprints to Israel.”
The Israeli spy agency Mossad has deeply infiltrated all sections of Iranian society, as illustrated by repeated successful assassinations of nuclear scientists and military leaders in Iran.
During the 12-day war in June, Israel knew even the locations of Iranian air defense systems, and they were taken out by Israeli agents working behind the enemy lines.
“While the export version of the J-10CE has been stripped of some technology, the leak of its radar codes and missile parameters would pose a significant threat to China’s national security.”
Beijing is worried that in Iran, the Mossad agents can get access to J-10CE’s sensitive technology, which can then be shared with the US.
However, more importantly, Chinese officials told Iran that buying the J-10CE alone would not make much difference.
Chinese officials explicitly told Iran, “Buying only fighter jets is a waste of money. If you imitate India’s Rafale and fight alone, you will only be beaten by Israel again. Modern air combat is a ‘system fight’ rather than a ‘one-on-one duel of fighter jets.”
“Pakistan was able to counter India thanks to the early warning aircraft, data links, and Hongqi-16 (HQ-16) air defense missiles sold by China in a package, with all the equipment connected for combat,” the blog post claimed.
Iran’s ground-based radars are antique European and American, and its early warning systems are a Soviet legacy, with no interoperability, it said. Thus, according to Chinese experts, what Iran really needs is to prioritize modern air defense systems.
“From a strategic perspective, Iran urgently needs to improve its air defense and anti-missile capabilities, rather than simply strengthening its air force’s offensive power. Only by improving its air defense system can it more effectively respond to Israeli air and missile strikes.”
It suggested that to deal with Israel’s F-35 stealth fighter jets, Iran needs to purchase China’s meter-wave anti-stealth radar, which can make the “American F-35 fighter jets run naked”.
Only with an integrated air defense system, data links, air defense missiles, radar, information command systems, and electronic warfare systems can Iran’s fighter jets achieve maximum effectiveness.
China is worried that without the elaborate, multi-layered ‘kill chain’ necessary to tackle Israel’s advanced Air Force, consisting of F-35s, F-15s, and F-16s, the J-10CE will be like ‘sitting ducks.’
The truly smart approach would be to follow China’s suggestion: first introduce real anti-stealth radars and establish effective detection capabilities for stealth fighters near key facilities, it said.
“Only after the basic protection of Iran’s important facilities, air force bases, and other targets is achieved can we talk about further introducing advanced fighter jets, early warning aircraft with anti-stealth capabilities, and other air combat systems.”
The combination of these factors means that instead of celebrating the Iranian interest in buying the J-10CE fighter jets, Beijing is cautioning Tehran and suggesting that it first invest in area denial technologies such as modern air defense systems and anti-stealth radars. Only then can the J-10CE fighter jets make any impact.
China possesses, the blog claims, a variety of technologically mature anti-stealth radars, highly effective long-, medium-, and short-range air defense missiles, and a supporting, highly effective command and combat system.
“Iran should not rush to purchase the J-10C; it would be wise to use its limited funds to procure this equipment.” Essentially, China is suggesting that Iran should invest in building integrated ‘kill chains,’ rather than investing in individual platforms.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
