In a potential conflict over Taiwan, China’s under-development sixth-generation fighter jet, the J-36, could block the airspace to foreign bases in Guam for up to two hours from 1,000 km away and could counter the advantages of the American B-21 stealth bomber, according to a Chinese military magazine.
The objective behind developing China’s next-generation fighter jet, unofficially dubbed the J-36, was to alleviate Beijing’s weakness against the American B-21 stealth bomber in a conflict within the first island chain, according to an article in Shipborne Weapons, a publication owned by China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation.
When the sixth-generation fighter is in service, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) can intercept US warplanes trying to penetrate the first island chain, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported, quoting the article.
The J-36 could enforce airspace blockades lasting one to two hours and suppress the air defenses of military bases in Guam from a distance.
“This will make it difficult for the US Navy and Air Force to maintain air superiority over the western Pacific and to intervene militarily in a series of operations by the Chinese military within the first island chain,” the article published in the magazine’s March edition said.
In a future conflict over Taiwan, the article said that both the Chinese Air Force and the US Air Force would most likely focus on fighting for control of the airspace about 1,000 km from the Chinese coast.
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US Acknowledges Its Inability To Enforce Complete Air Superiority Against China
The US also acknowledges the claims made in the Chinese military magazine that in a future conflict over the first island chain, the US will struggle to establish complete “air superiority over the Western Pacific” and that the J-36 could even attain air superiority over US military bases like Guam for one to two hours.
In a recent US Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Admiral Samuel Paparo, the head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said that China is rapidly advancing its air combat capabilities and is in a position to “deny” the US air superiority in the first island chain, the strategic archipelagos in East Asia comprising Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines.
“China’s unprecedented aggression and military modernization poses a serious threat to the homeland, our allies, and our partners (in the Indo-Pacific),” Admiral Paparo warned the Senate Committee last month.
“China is outproducing the United States in air, missile, maritime, and space capability and accelerating these,” he said.
Underlining the criticality of maintaining air superiority in a potential conflict with China, Admiral Paparo said: “If you do not hold the high ground along the first island chain, you are vastly limited in your ability to operate. I think everybody knows the importance of the high ground. So ceding air superiority is not an option if we intend to maintain capability against our adversaries and the ability to support our allies.”
Swiftly establishing air superiority over your adversary is key to winning modern conflicts. One key reason the Ukraine-Russia war has dragged on for more than three years is that Moscow failed to establish air superiority in the early days of the battle.
In contrast, the US has enjoyed air superiority in all its recent wars. Be it in Afghanistan or Iraq, or the recent hostilities with the Houthis in Yemen, the US was quickly able to establish unchallenged air superiority, giving it a critical edge in the battle.
However, China’s rapid progress in air combat capabilities means that the US is no longer confident of establishing air superiority over Beijing in a future conflict in the Indo-Pacific.
When asked if China can deny U.S. air superiority in the first island chain, Admiral Paparo replied: “I give them high marks in their ability to do that.”
Analysts have warned that establishing permanent air superiority will be impossible, with both sides employing modern fifth-generation aircraft and rapidly developing sixth-generation fighter jets equipped with advanced sensors and long-range precision-guided missiles.
Instead, the objective would be to establish air supremacy for brief periods.
“Air supremacy is the complete mastery of the air. Neither side will enjoy that. But it will be my job to contest air superiority, to protect those forces that are on the first island chain, such as the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force, and also to provide windows of air superiority to achieve our effects,” Admiral Paparo added.
Countering B-21, World’s First Sixth-Gen Bomber
In recent weeks, both China and the US have fast-tracked the development of their sixth-generation fighter jets. Chinese J-36 has been repeatedly spotted flying near its developer base, the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation, suggesting it is progressing rapidly.
In March, the US awarded Boeing the contract to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet, the F-47.
However, according to the Chinese military magazine Shipborne Weapons, the B-21 alone was a threat to China, and even a massive fleet of the PLA’s active J-20 fifth-generation stealth fighter could not cope with it.
The B-21 Raider, developed by Northrop Grumman, was described as the world’s first sixth-generation bomber. Its maiden flight was in November 2023. The US Air Force intends to procure at least 100 B-21 Raiders.
The B-21 Raider has also increased its flight testing in recent times. In March, Northrop Grumman’s aeronautics division president, Tom Jones, announced that the B-21 is conducting flight tests at least twice a week at Edwards Air Force Base, California.
“The B-21 … is well capable of travelling over 2,000km from Guam to perform ‘loitering air superiority’ missions for several hours in the vicinity of the first island chain, which is between 800km and 1,000km away from mainland China,” Shipborne Weapons said.
By controlling the airspace between Guam and the first island chain, the B-21 could not only fire stand-off missiles at Chinese land and sea targets, but also establish a safe corridor for its navy, logistics, reconnaissance and early warning units, as well as other strategic bombers, such as the B-52H, B-1B and B-1A aircraft.
This would exhaust and drain Chinese air defenses, as they would have to intercept “endless air-to-ship, air-to-ground, and even hypersonic missiles.”
Chinese aircraft carrier strike groups would also have to retreat within the cover of their land-based air force, “making it very difficult to achieve their strategic goal of building air and sea defense and an offshore early warning system,” the article said.
According to the article, the J-20 suffered from many limitations, including its short range, limited weapon capacity, inadequate all-directional stealth, and reliance on airborne early warning and control aircraft.
Therefore, the PLA Air Force needed a sixth-generation fighter with better all-directional stealth, a longer range, more advanced avionics, better supersonic cruise, and a larger weapon bay to counter the B-21.
The article claims that the J-36’s unique design meets all these requirements, and it might even become the world’s first operational sixth-generation fighter in service around 2030.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over 15 years of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Double Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from The University of Sheffield, UK.
- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
