China already has the world’s largest naval fleet. Despite these larger numbers, the US enjoys both a qualitative and quantitative edge in terms of submarines and aircraft carriers.
However, the latest analysis by security experts suggests that China is closing the gap at least in one of those areas – in the underwater warfighting domain, both in quantity as well as in quality.
By 2030, China will not only enjoy a numerical lead over the US in terms of submarines, but Beijing’s subs are also getting quieter, faster, and capable of carrying more advanced weapons and better sensors that can stay underwater for longer durations.
China’s rapid strides in submarine technology have the potential to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.
After Ukraine, the next flashpoint could be Taiwan, which China has vowed to reunify with the mainland by force if necessary. In recent years, high-ranking US officials have declared that China will invade Taiwan by 2027, but Beijing denies there is a deadline.
Any conflict over Taiwan, the self-ruling democratic island, will necessarily involve a larger role for the navy, with the underwater fleet of submarines and undersea drones playing a critical role.
However, despite this sobering reality, there is little the US can do, as its shipbuilding and submarine building capabilities have been in a systematic decline for decades, and the trend cannot be reversed in a few years.
China Vs U.S. Naval Fleet
According to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China now possesses the world’s largest maritime fighting force, operating 234 warships to the U.S. Navy’s 219.
This count of China’s fighting ships encompasses all of its known, active-duty manned, missile- or torpedo-armed ships or submarines displacing more than 1,000 metric tons, including the 22 missile-armed corvettes recently transferred to the China Coast Guard, but not the approximately 80 missile-armed small patrol craft operated by the PLAN.
The finding is also supported by the US Congress research paper – China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities – published in April this year.
“China’s navy is, by far, the largest of any country in East Asia, and sometime between 2015 and 2020 it surpassed the U.S. Navy in numbers of battle force ships, meaning the types of ships that count toward the quoted size of the U.S. Navy.”
The US Department of Defense (DOD) states that China’s navy “is the largest navy in the world with a battle force of over 370 platforms [i.e., ships], including major surface combatants, submarines, ocean-going amphibious ships, mine warfare ships, aircraft carriers, and fleet auxiliaries”.
“The… overall battle force [of China’s navy] is expected to grow to 395 ships by 2025 and 435 ships by 2030. The U.S. Navy, by comparison, included 296 battle force ships as of September 30, 2024, and the Navy’s FY2025 budget submission projects that the Navy will include 294 battle force ships by the end of FY2030,” the US Congress research paper said.
According to the paper, in 2004, the US enjoyed a comprehensive advantage of 76 ships over China. In 2014, Beijing overtook Washington in its naval fleet size, and by 2023, China was 41 ships ahead of the US.
However, the US still enjoys a technological and numerical advantage in terms of aircraft carriers and submarines.
The US Navy has 11 aircraft carriers, all of them nuclear-powered. In comparison, China currently has only two operational aircraft carriers, with the third undergoing sea trials.
Furthermore, China has not yet built a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. However, there are reports suggesting that China’s fourth under-development carrier (Type 004) could be nuclear-powered.
China will not be able to narrow the US advantage in terms of aircraft carriers for many decades. However, in the critical domain of undersea warfare, Beijing might be closer than ever in bridging the gap with the US.
China Vs US Submarine Capabilities
According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), the US Navy currently has 71 submarines, and all of them are nuclear-powered.
This list includes 14 Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSBNs), 53 Nuclear-Powered attack submarines (SSNs), and four Guided Missile Submarines (SSGNs).
Similarly, according to the NTI, China has 60 submarines, of which only 12 are nuclear-powered.
China has six Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSBNs), six Nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), and 48 Diesel-electric attack submarines (SSKs). Of the 48 SSKs, 12 submarines feature Air-independent propulsion (AIP), technology that makes them quieter and allows them to wait longer to come up for air.
While China has still not operationalized a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, Beijing has a nearly half-century-long experience with making nuclear-powered submarines.
China’s first nuclear-powered submarine, which was a loud and slow vessel, entered service in 1974. Since then, Beijing has made considerable progress in improving its nuclear-powered subs. They are now larger, quieter, and faster.
China’s first nuclear-powered submarine was the Type 091 (Han-class) SSN, which was later replaced by the Type 093 (Shang-class) nuclear-powered attack submarine.
Designed with assistance from Russia, the development of the Type 093 submarine aimed to address the limitations of the Type 091, particularly in noise reduction and combat effectiveness. The first Type 093 entered service in the early 2000s, featuring improved hydrodynamics, quieter operation, and greater endurance.
Later variants of the Type 093, such as the Type 093A and 093B, also featured vertical launch systems (VLS) for several types of cruise missiles, marking the first time that a Chinese attack submarine has incorporated such a capability.
Commenting on the progress of Chinese subs, Brent Sadler, a US Navy veteran and senior research fellow with the Heritage Foundation, told the Wall Street Journal: “They could be on the cusp, for submarine operations, of a technological leap where they are able to quiet the submarines significantly and it becomes very hard to track them.”
In recent years, China has made particular strides in nuclear-powered submarines, whose greater speed, range, and endurance give its Navy greater reach.
New models in development include the Type 095, which analysts expect to have vertical launch tubes that can accommodate cruise missiles, the WSJ report said.
“The Type 095 is going to be a very quiet sub. That’s going to complicate matters greatly,” said Christopher Carlson, a retired captain in the US Navy Reserve and former Pentagon naval systems engineer.
According to the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, the capabilities of China’s two new nuclear submarines — the Type 095 and Type 096 — match those used by the US and Russia.
The Type 095 nuclear-powered attack submarine has a self-sustaining capability of about 90 days. It can carry 24 torpedoes and 16 vertical launch units and is equipped with YJ-18 anti-ship missiles, CJ-10 land attack cruise missiles, and HQ-10 anti-aircraft missiles.
China’s Submarine Force To Surpass The US By 2030
The US still enjoys a numerical and technological advantage over China in terms of submarines. However, most of the US submarines were added during the Cold War era, and many are nearing their retirement.
Additionally, China is set to add more submarines per year than the US, meaning that in the future, China will have far greater submarine strength than the US.
According to the US Navy’s long-range shipbuilding and fleet inventory plan 2025, the US submarine strength will drop to 47 by the end of this decade, before hovering in the mid-50s for many years. The fleet isn’t projected to hit 66 until 2054.
The United States’ two submarine shipyards are straining to produce even the two Virginia-class submarines needed to maintain (and eventually increase) the size of the subsurface fleet, a CSIS paper noted last year, adding that the decline of U.S. naval dominance will be difficult to reverse, as the process has spanned decades and rests on slow-moving economic and industrial trends.
On the other hand, China’s submarine strength will rise in the coming years. A 2023 US Department of Defense (DoD) report anticipates China growing its submarine force to 80 units by 2035. Nearly 20 of these subs could be nuclear-powered.
According to a 2024 CSIS report, China’s submarine technology is rapidly improving, and its submarine production capacity is growing.
According to several analysts, China has added between seven and eight Type 093B submarines in just the past three years, a production rate that exceeds the number of attack submarines China has constructed over the past three decades.
When including conventional submarines, such as the new Type 039C, the total number of submarines launched by China in the past three years surpasses 15, showcasing China’s impressive submarine-building capacity.
Do Greater Numbers Mean Automatic Victory?
It appears clear that by the 2030s, PLAN will surpass the US Navy in terms of submarine fleet. However, a larger number of submarines does not mean automatic dominance for PLAN.
The U.S. Navy has vastly more combat experience and time at sea than the PLAN.
“The United States also has a blue water naval tradition dating back more than two centuries, while the Chinese tradition dates back less than three decades,” said a 2024 CSIS paper.
Furthermore, the US has more alliances in the Indo-Pacific than China. In any potential conflict with China, the US could get assistance from Japan, South Korea, Australia, and even the Philippines.
Additionally, the US would still enjoy an advantage over China in terms of aircraft carriers and nuclear-powered submarines.
However, China’s rising submarine strength is definitely a cause of concern for the US Navy.
