Russia may have the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, quality technological know-how, and undeniable resilience to remain a potential threat to U.S. power, presence, and global interests, but it is China that stands out as the number one country that Washington thinks is threatening its interests globally.
The above is the conclusion of two different assessments of the two departments of the U.S. government that were released recently – “Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) of The U.S. Intelligence Community”, brought out by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and based on inputs as available on 18 March, 2025; and “2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment” by Jeffrey Kruse, Lieutenant General, U.S. Air Force and Director, Defense Intelligence Agency(DIA), by using information available as of 11 May 2025.
Both assessments have covered China more extensively than Russia, although they have noted the increasing collaboration between the two against the U.S.
While the Intelligence Community’s report devotes seven pages to China, as opposed to six to Russia, the DIA’s report has five and three pages for China and Russia, respectively.
Though the ATA report on China is more comprehensive than that of the DIA, some of the important points both share are the following:
China’s strategic objectives are to become the pre-eminent power in East Asia, challenging the U.S. for global leadership, unify Taiwan with mainland China, advance the development and resilience of China’s economy, and achieve technological self-sufficiency by mid-century.
China continues to enhance its global capabilities to counter the United States and its allies across the diplomatic, informational, military, and economic domains. President Xi Jinping will carry out his mission of achieving “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049.
China is rapidly advancing its military modernization and developing capabilities across all warfare domains, which could enable it to seize Taiwan by force, better project power in the Western Pacific, and disrupt U.S. attempts to maintain a presence or intervene in conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region.
In 2025, China announced a nominal 5.2 percent annual increase in its military budget to $247 billion. However, China’s actual defense spending is significantly higher, estimated at around $304 to $377 billion. These figures include publicly omitted defense spending, such as research and development and defense industrial base subsidies.
A major portion of China’s military modernization efforts is focused on developing counter-intervention capabilities tailored against all aspects of U.S. and allied military operations in the Pacific. Beijing will focus on meeting key modernization milestones by 2027 and 2035, aiming to make the PLA a world-class military by 2049.
Examples of PLA advances in 2024 include the PLA Navy’s third carrier, CV-18 Fujian, beginning sea trials and likely being ready to enter operational service in 2025.
The PLA Rocket Force is likely fielding the DF-27 ballistic missile, which features a hypersonic glide vehicle payload option and an estimated range of between 5,000 and 8,000 kilometers. The PLA ground forces are also fielding their most advanced multiple rocket launcher, the PCH-191, which increases their long-range, precision strike capability.
The ATA report specifically mentions how the PLA has the capability to conduct long-range precision strikes with conventional weapons against “the Homeland’s periphery in the Western Pacific, including Guam, Hawaii, and Alaska.
China has developed a range of ballistic and cruise missiles with conventional payloads that can be delivered from its mainland as well as by air and sea, including by nuclear-powered submarines.
China may be exploring the development of conventionally-armed intercontinental range missile systems, which, if developed and fielded, would allow China to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States”.
The DIA statement adds, “The PLA Rocket Force has fielded approximately 900 short-range ballistic missiles (compared to 1,000 in 2023), 1,300 medium-range ballistic missiles (compared to 1,000 in 2023), 500 intermediate-range ballistic missiles (similar to 2023), 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles (compared to 350 in 2023), and 400 ground-launched cruise missiles (compared to 300 in 2023).”
China’s nuclear warhead stockpile is believed to have surpassed 600 operational nuclear warheads. The DIA estimates that China will have more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030—much of which will be deployed at higher readiness levels for faster response times—and will continue growing its force until at least 2035.
“This supports the PLA’s objective to achieve a more diverse nuclear force, comprising systems including low-yield precision strike missiles and ICBMs with multi-megaton yields, to provide a broader range of nuclear response options”.
China is investing in space systems that enhance its own Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Cyber, Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance, and Targeting (C5ISRT) capabilities. China possesses more than 1,000 satellites, including approximately 500 remote-sensing and ISR satellites, second only to the United States.
By 2030, Chinese companies plan to launch thousands of satellites as mega-constellations, which are intended to compete with Starlink as alternative providers of global internet and secure communications.
According to the DIA, this will substantially enhance China’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, enable its fielded advanced communications satellites to transmit large amounts of data, and improve its space-based positioning, navigation, and timing capabilities.
China-led cyber intrusions, including those by the PLA Cyberspace Force and the Ministry of State Security, are targeting information networks worldwide, including U.S. Government systems, to steal intellectual property and data and gain access to sensitive networks.
China is likely to continue using its cyberspace capabilities to support intelligence collection against U.S. academic, economic, military, and political targets, as well as to exfiltrate sensitive information from defense infrastructure and research institutes, thereby gaining an economic and military advantage.
The ATA report is emphatic that China remains the most active and persistent cyber threat to the U.S. government, private sector, and critical infrastructure networks.
Beyond the above common estimates, the ATA report’s assessment covered many other significant areas relating to China that the DIA seems to have overlooked. One such area is “biosecurity,” which the ATA report talks about at length. It highlights China’s approach to and role in addressing global biological, medical, and other health-related priorities that present unique challenges to the United States and the world.
It mentions China’s suspected role in the origin of COVID-19 pandemic. “The coronavirus that is the closest known relative to SARS-Cove—the virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)—probably originated in Yunnan Province, according to scientific studies, even though the first SARS outbreak detected in humans in 2003 occurred in Guangdong Province, hundreds of miles away”, it says.
According to the ATA report, China also views biotechnology as critical to becoming a dominant economic power and intends to expand its domestic biotechnology economy to $3.3 trillion this year.
Beijing is investing heavily in collecting health and genetic data both at home and abroad in pursuit of these goals, and has demonstrated its ability to be globally competitive in certain low-cost, high-volume commodities, such as biomanufacturing and genetic sequencing.
The report fears that China is employing an aggressive, whole-of-government approach, combined with state direction of the private sector, to become a global S&T superpower, surpassing the United States, promoting self-reliance, and achieving further economic, political, and military gains.
“China is using an aggressive, whole-of-government approach, combined with the state direction of the private sector, to become a global S&T superpower, surpass the United States, promote self-reliance, and achieve further economic, political, and military gain”.
Under the separate heading of “Malign Influence Activities,” the ATA assessment is that Beijing will continue to expand its coercive and subversive malign influence activities to weaken the United States both internally and globally.
“Through these efforts, the PRC seeks to suppress critical views and critics of China within the United States and worldwide, and sow doubts in U.S. leadership and strength. Beijing is likely to feel emboldened to use malign influence more regularly in the coming years, particularly as it fields AI to improve its capabilities and avoid detection”.
What, then, are the challenges confronting China?
Here again, unlike the DIA report, the ATA report has attempted an answer that the Americans are probably happy to hear.
“China faces daunting challenges that will impair the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) leaders’ strategic and political achievements. China’s leaders probably are most concerned about corruption, demographic imbalances, and fiscal and economic struggles because they threaten the country’s economic performance and quality of life, two key factors underpinning CCP legitimacy. Despite an acute economic slowdown, China’s leaders probably will resist making needed structural reforms and instead maintain statist economic policies to steer capital toward priority sectors, reduce dependence on foreign technologies, and enable military modernization.
“China’s growth probably will continue to slow because of low consumer and investor confidence. China’s birth and marriage rates continue to decline, reinforcing negative population trends and a shrinking labor force.
“Xi’s focus on security and stability for the CCP and securing other leaders’ personal loyalty to him is undermining China’s ability to solve complex domestic problems and will impede Beijing’s global leverage. Xi’s blending of domestic and foreign security threats is undermining China’s position and standing abroad, reducing Beijing’s ability to shape global perceptions and compete with U.S. leadership”.
- Author and veteran journalist Prakash Nanda is Chairman of the Editorial Board of the EurAsian Times and has been commenting on politics, foreign policy, and strategic affairs for nearly three decades. He is a former National Fellow of the Indian Council for Historical Research and a recipient of the Seoul Peace Prize Scholarship.
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