During the grand military parade held at Tiananmen Square on September 3, attended by 26 countries, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) unveiled a range of cutting-edge military systems, signalling a leap in China’s defence modernization.
Among the highlights were the newly developed Type 100 Main Battle Tanks (MBTs), the YJ-19 and YJ-20 hypersonic anti-ship missiles—capable of traveling at several times the speed of sound to penetrate advanced naval defences—two variants of the Type 191 long-range rocket artillery systems, and an autonomous, four-legged “combat dog” robot designed for reconnaissance, logistical support, and potentially even offensive operations in complex terrain.
Together, these unveilings presented a striking picture of the PLA’s next generation of sophisticated, high-tech weaponry.
Yet the parade was more than just a showcase of military hardware. It carried profound symbolism and underscored Beijing’s broader strategic priorities. In particular, the event reflected the intensifying great-power competition between China and the United States, highlighting China’s determination to close technological gaps with Washington, project power in the Indo-Pacific, and assert its position as a global military peer.
The meticulously choreographed ceremony thus functioned not only as a display of national pride but also as a deliberate message to both domestic and international audiences about China’s growing military and geopolitical ambitions.
The Indo-Pacific has become the central theatre of 21st-century geopolitics. Stretching from the eastern shores of Africa to the western coast of the Americas, it is home to more than half the world’s population and accounts for a majority of global trade flows.
Within this vast maritime space, the rise of China has fundamentally altered the regional balance. While Beijing presents itself as a responsible stakeholder, its assertive actions, coercive diplomacy, and military expansion have increasingly raised concerns among regional and extra-regional powers.
An assessment of China’s conduct shows why it continues to be perceived as a destabilizing force and a strategic threat in the Indo-Pacific.
Strategic Assertiveness & Maritime Claims
The South China Sea epitomizes China’s aggressive approach to territorial disputes. By advancing the “nine-dash line” claim, which lacks recognition under international law, China has sought control over waters and resources claimed by several Southeast Asian states.
Despite the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling rejecting Beijing’s claims, China has militarized artificial islands, deployed coast guard and maritime militia fleets, and harassed the vessels of other claimants such as the Philippines and Vietnam.
This undermines not only the sovereignty of smaller states but also the principle of freedom of navigation, a cornerstone of international maritime law. The continuing assault on the Philippines’ facilities and boats remains unhindered.
In the East China Sea, China contests Japan’s administrative control over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Frequent incursions by Chinese vessels and aircraft around the islands have heightened tensions and forced Japan to enhance its defence posture.
These persistent frictions indicate that China sees territorial revisionism as central to its Indo-Pacific strategy.
Military Modernization & Power Projection
China’s military transformation has been rapid and sweeping. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is now the world’s largest in terms of ship numbers, with growing capabilities in aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, and long-range strike systems.
Beijing has invested heavily in anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems, designed to deter U.S. forces from intervening in regional conflicts. Its cyber, space, and missile capabilities further reinforce its deterrence profile.
The Indo-Pacific is witnessing more frequent Chinese naval patrols in the Indian Ocean, highlighting Beijing’s ambition to secure its sea lines of communication.
The establishment of a military base in Djibouti and port development projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in places like Gwadar (Pakistan) and Hambantota (Sri Lanka) suggest dual-use possibilities for military logistics.
Such moves raise fears of a “string of pearls” strategy designed to encircle India and expand China’s strategic depth.
Economic Coercion & Debt Diplomacy
Beyond hard power, China employs economic leverage to shape the choices of Indo-Pacific states.
The BRI has poured billions into infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, and the Pacific. While these investments promise development, they also saddle countries with unsustainable debt.
The case of Sri Lanka, forced to lease Hambantota port to China for 99 years after failing to repay loans, illustrates the risks of debt dependency.
Moreover, China has weaponized trade and investment as tools of coercion. Australia faced punitive tariffs on its exports after calling for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID-19.
Smaller Southeast Asian economies, highly dependent on Chinese markets, often self-censor or mute criticism of Beijing’s behaviour. Such practices undermine the autonomy of states and erode regional resilience against coercion. After US tariffs were raised, Chinese exports fell 3-% but made up for it by surging into ASEAN by 22%.
Challenge to Regional Norms and Institutions
China’s actions also test the credibility of regional institutions such as ASEAN. While ASEAN promotes consensus and non-alignment, Beijing has often exploited divisions among member states to block collective responses.
Its preference for bilateral negotiations on the South China Sea sidelines multilateral frameworks and tilts the balance of power in its favour.
Similarly, Beijing advances alternative governance models that emphasize state control over markets and limited transparency, challenging liberal democratic norms promoted by many Indo-Pacific partners.
Through institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China seeks to provide parallel platforms to dilute Western and regional influence.
Threat to India’s Strategic Interests
For India, China poses a multifaceted challenge in both continental and maritime domains.
The unresolved boundary dispute has led to repeated crises, most recently the 2020 clash in Galwan, which underscored Beijing’s willingness to use force.
In the maritime sphere, the growing Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean threatens India’s traditional primacy.
The deepening of China–Pakistan strategic cooperation, including projects under the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), directly impinges on India’s sovereignty claims in Kashmir. Now this is likely to be extended to Afghanistan.
India thus perceives the Indo-Pacific not only as an economic opportunity but also as a geopolitical necessity to counterbalance China. This explains New Delhi’s active role in the Quad alongside the U.S., Japan, and Australia, and its outreach to ASEAN, Africa, and the Pacific Island states.
U.S. & Allied Responses
China’s assertiveness has galvanized countervailing strategies. The United States has reinforced its Indo-Pacific strategy with increased deployments, freedom of navigation operations, and deeper alliances.
Japan has reinterpreted its pacifist constitution to expand security roles, while Australia has invested in nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS partnership.
Collectively, these moves indicate recognition that unchecked Chinese power could reshape the regional order to the detriment of open seas, free markets, and democratic values.
However, balancing China is not straightforward. Many states in Southeast Asia and the Pacific depend economically on Beijing and hesitate to openly align against it.
This creates a dilemma: countries seek security from China’s assertiveness but prosperity from its economic clout. The US itself is seen as seeking a trade deal, even if its Indo-Pacific reach is to be muted.
The Continuing Threat
China’s Indo-Pacific behaviour demonstrates a consistent pattern: territorial assertiveness, military build-up, economic coercion, and disregard for international rulings.
Its rise does not resemble the peaceful integration once hoped for but instead points toward revisionism and a desire to establish regional pre-eminence. The threat it poses is not limited to individual states but to the stability of the entire Indo-Pacific order.
Unless checked by collective action, China could set precedents where might overrides right, smaller states are coerced into compliance, and multilateral institutions are hollowed out. Such an outcome would destabilize one of the most vital regions for global trade, technology, and energy flows.
Conclusion
The Indo-Pacific today is marked by opportunities for growth but also fraught with tensions. China’s assertive behaviour, combining military, economic, and diplomatic instruments, makes it a continuing threat to regional security and stability.
While engagement with Beijing remains necessary, regional powers and external stakeholders must strengthen cooperative mechanisms such as the Quad, bolster ASEAN’s unity, and ensure adherence to international law.
The challenge is to preserve an Indo-Pacific that is free, open, inclusive, and rules-based, where power is balanced by norms and where sovereignty is respected. The trajectory of China’s behaviour will therefore remain the decisive factor in shaping the future of the Indo-Pacific order.
- Gurjit Singh is a former Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN, and the African Union Chair, CII Task Force on Trilateral Cooperation in Africa, Professor, IIT Indore.
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