Israel is keeping an eye on several Middle Eastern countries seeking to acquire F-35 Lightning II aircraft amid concerns that its ‘Qualitative Military Edge’ in the region will be compromised.
The Israel Air Force and security officials are closely monitoring the interest of regional countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, in acquiring the F-35 stealth fighter from the United States, according to a report in the Jerusalem Post. It also noted with concern that the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, and Morocco have all had their sights on the F-35.
The US and Israel have a long-standing agreement that states US military equipment supplied to Israel must be “superior in capability” as compared to that sold to Israel’s neighbors, which means that the US weapons sales in the Middle East cannot jeopardize Israel’s “qualitative military edge.”
Currently, only Israel operates the fifth-generation F-35 in the region, which ensures its complete military dominance. Israel initially ordered 50 F-35 Lightning II fighters from Lockheed Martin, followed by an additional order for 25 in 2023.
It operates a modified version of the F-35, called the F-35I “Adir,” which has been tailored to meet Israel’s specific operational requirements. Notably, Israel was the first country to use the aircraft in combat, and also the latest (when it went to war against Iran in June).
The Jerusalem Post report states that the incorporation of Israeli-made radar systems gives Israel a competitive edge in the F-35 program, which has multiple radar systems. With features not present in other aircraft, these technologies improve lethality and intelligence collection.
“If Arab nations acquire the F-35, the US could limit its capabilities,” the report states, referring to ongoing talks between Arab states and US officials
Incidentally, the report comes days after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed optimism about obtaining the F-35, years after Turkey was removed from the program for purchasing the Russian S-400. Previous reports hinted that Israel was lobbying with the Trump administration to block the clearance.
Separately, Reuters had earlier reported that the US and Saudi Arabia discussed a potential Saudi purchase of the F-35 Lightning II.
The UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have recently signed big-billion deals with the US, in what appeared to be an effort to impress the Trump administration and obtain the F-35 in return. The UAE and the Saudi Kingdom have made multiple efforts to acquire the aircraft since 2017. Qatar made a formal request for the aircraft in 2020.
Israeli security officials told a local publication, Walla, that while talks are still ongoing, any sale would require US approval. Even if the US approves the process, the buyer would still have to submit a formal request for Congressional approval. The report further stated that if the US approved the sale and it was allowed to go through by Congress, Israel would have to “reconsider its strategy.”
The report did not disclose the options the Israeli government would consider to retain its military edge. However, it did mention that the Israeli Defense Ministry is closely monitoring the F-47 fighter jet project, a sixth-generation aircraft.
Will Israel Get A More Advanced Jet From The US?
If history is anything to go by, the United States has rarely taken decisions antithetical to Israel’s interests, which is perhaps one reason why Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have been denied the F-35 so far despite their best attempts.
Israel’s influence on the US polity and its foreign policy was recently demonstrated when the Trump administration entered the war against Iran and bombed its nuclear facilities, despite opposition to the move within his Republican camp.
If Trump decides to approve the F-35 sale to the other regional allies in the Middle East, it would have to severely downgrade the aircraft to ensure Israel’s military edge is retained. However, that downgrade is likely to make the aircraft unattractive to potential buyers, especially since the F-35 is a very expensive aircraft, and its life-cycle cost is exorbitant.
The next best thing that the US could do is to upgrade Israel’s air power with an aircraft more advanced than the F-35.
While awarding the contract for the development of F-47 to Boeing in March 2025, Trump hinted, “We like to tone them down about 10 percent, which probably makes sense because someday maybe they’re not our allies, right?” The president stated that he was open to exporting the sixth-generation aircraft.
The US has so far not explicitly stated that it would arm Israel with the F-47. However, Israel is aware that with a 1,800-kilometer range and speeds above Mach two, the F-47 will outperform the F-35. Moreover, the F-47 will have a wider range of weapons, artificial intelligence, and next-generation stealth technologies. Additionally, the F-47 will have ‘stealth++’—an advancement from the Raptor’s ‘stealth+’ and F-35’s ‘stealth.’
The F-47 will become operational between 2025 and 2029, which means that the US can eventually consider arming rich Gulf nations with F-35s, whose deliveries are expected to start in 2030, while simultaneously arming Israel with a “toned-down” F-47.
In addition to this, the US could also explore the possibility of arming Israel with the Fifth Plus Generation variant of the F-35, which is being pitched by Lockheed Martin as a bridging solution to the F-47.
The Lockheed Martin CEO, Jim Taiclet, has stated that the company is looking to integrate sixth-generation technology that was developed for the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program into the F-35. The fifth-generation plus F-35 is known as the “Ferrari” variant.
“We’re basically going to take the [F-35] chassis and turn it into a Ferrari,” Taiclet asserted. “It’s like a NASCAR upgrade, so to speak, where we would take the F-35 [and] apply some of those co-funded technologies both from NGAD and the F-35 program. Eventually, there’ll be 3,500 of those [F-35] chassis out there at various stages of technology and capability [worldwide]. We think we can get most of the way to sixth-generation at half the cost.”
The CEO said that the company’s goal is to modify the F-35 such that it can provide 80% of the effectiveness of a sixth-generation fighter at 50% of the cost per unit. The 80% figure, according to him, also includes the degree of stealth, as well as “other aspects.” He said the fighters will require technology such as improved passive infrared sensors, which might enable the jet to identify foes farther away without revealing its location to them.
The integration of the F-35 into the Israel Air Force (IAF) would be a seamless affair, and interoperability with the F-35I Adir would provide a significant advantage.
More importantly, Taiclet maintains that the fifth-plus generation F-35 can be fielded within the next three years. If Israel decides to purchase this aircraft, it would have a significantly more advanced F-35 variant at a much lower cost than that of the sixth-generation F-47, and in a remarkably short timeframe.
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