In the early 1970s, the US National Security Advisor, Henry Kissinger, pulled off a diplomatic coup by making a secret visit to China. After two decades of frosty relations, Washington reached a historic detente with Beijing, striking two targets with a single arrow.
Firstly, the US established mutually beneficial trade relations with China; at the same time, the US was able to draw a wedge between China and the Soviet Union, the two prominent Communist powers of the time.
The US hoped to use China as a counterbalance to Soviet power and influence.
Following a secret visit by Kissinger, the US Table Tennis team visited China, softening the ground for formal talks. This visit by the US Table Tennis team became known as “Ping-Pong Diplomacy”.
The Kissinger idea was to use China to contain the Soviet Union. The colossal success of this policy left a profound impact on U.S. foreign policy thinking.
However, the US also learned a bitter lesson. While it was able to contain the Soviet Union, it indirectly helped in the rise of China, the “sleeping giant” of Asia. Within two decades of the Kissinger detente, the Soviet Union ceased to exist, but Beijing emerged as the US’s primary adversary.
Soon, the US was seeking partners to counter Beijing’s influence.
Fast forward to the 2020s, five decades after the historic US-China detente, Washington is still following a similar policy, just on a much broader scale, and ensuring that it doesn’t create a new China in the process of containing its current challenger.
The US is attempting to utilize India as a means to contain China, its primary adversary. However, the US does not wanna repeat the same mistake it made in the 1970s.
The US realizes that India is already the world’s most populous country and the world’s fourth-largest economy, on course to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028.
So, to ensure that New Delhi does not challenge Washington in the future, the US is also using Pakistan to contain India, and using Afghanistan to contain Pakistan, while at the same time also dealing with the Taliban to keep Afghanistan off balance.
In short, the US is ensuring that the entire region is on the edge by playing one side against the other, while also ensuring that every player is dependent on the US.
The China Containment Policy
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US enjoyed a unipolar moment for at least two decades.
However, things began to change after 2010, as China’s GDP surpassed that of Japan, and its Belt and Road Initiative expanded its influence. Under the Obama administration’s “Pivot to Asia,” the US began rebalancing resources toward the Indo-Pacific, primarily to contain China’s rising influence.
This evolved under Trump 1.0 (2017–2021) with tariffs and export controls, and Biden (2021–2025) with tech bans and alliances.
The US recognized that limiting China’s influence in the Pacific is crucial to mitigating its global influence.
As part of this strategy, the US changed the nomenclature of the Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific, to underscore that India has equal stakes in the region and that China cannot treat the Pacific as its backyard.
The US started treating India as a counterweight to China. The 2020 Coronavirus outbreak in China and India-China military clash in the Himalayas (Galwan 2020) that resulted in multiple fatalities on both sides, gave the US further opportunity to drive a wedge between the two Asian powers.
In 2017, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) was revived. An informal alliance of the US, India, Japan, and Australia to promote a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP), the alliance reached a major landmark in 2021 with the participation of QUAD countries in Malabar drills.
The informal alliance has also been termed as an Asian “NATO,” directed against China.
This sentiment was explicitly stated by Adm. John Aquilino, US Indo-Pacific Command, last year, when he said that “A united Quad is the most effective counterbalance to Beijing’s maritime ambitions.”
Following the coronavirus pandemic, the US also began implementing a ‘Decoupling’ policy from China, shifting its critical supply chains away from China to India. For instance, Apple has moved several of its manufacturing units to India. This policy had the potential to support India’s manufacturing sector.
Furthermore, over the last decade, the US has signed several significant defense agreements with India, including COMCASA (2018), LEMOA (2016), and BECA (2020), which have boosted India’s access to US geospatial data and facilitated joint drills and patrols.
However, while using India to contain China, at the same time, the US is using Pakistan to contain India, and using Afghanistan to contain Pakistan.
Playing Pakistan Against India
Since Trump’s return to the White House in January of this year, a clear shift in US policy towards Pakistan has been observed.
The Pakistan Army Chief, Asim Munir, has visited the US three times since June. First, in June, Trump hosted General Munir for lunch and a closed-door meeting in the White House.
Munir was in the US again in August, where he made nuclear threats against India from US soil. According to experts, this was the first instance ever when nuclear threats were made against a third country from US soil.
Earlier this week, Munir was back at the White House. This time, he was also accompanied by the Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
During this time, the US has also signed several trade agreements with Pakistan and committed an investment of USD 500 million to explore critical minerals and oil in Pakistan.
The sudden bonhomie between Washington and Islamabad has taken many by surprise. Many analysts view it as an attempt by the US to counterbalance a rising India, which is increasingly confident of its capabilities and is pursuing a fiercely independent foreign policy.
Contrary to US expectations, India has neither downgraded its defense partnership with Russia nor halted its oil purchases from Russia.
Russia remains India’s largest source of weapons imports and its most significant source of oil.
Trump has also imposed a 50% tariff on India, the highest tariff imposed on any country. Furthermore, on September 25, Trump imposed a 100% tariff on the Indian pharmaceutical sector.
The Trump tariffs on India are widely interpreted as a punishment for India’s independent foreign policy. However, while the US is using Pakistan to keep India off balance, simultaneously, Washington is also using Kabul to keep Islamabad on the edge.
Trump has expressed his desire to regain control of the Bagram air base in Afghanistan. Though the Taliban has made it clear that it will not return the base to the US, these are still early days, and the possibility of a deal between the Taliban and the US can not be rejected outright.
If the deal goes through, not only will the US return to Afghanistan, but the Taliban will also be able to strike a hard bargain with the US, potentially securing economic and military aid from the US.
The Taliban and Pakistan already have a frosty relationship, with frequent border clashes. Islamabad has also repeatedly accused the Taliban of supporting and providing safe havens to Pakistan-based terrorists, particularly the TTP.
If the Taliban can strike a direct deal with the US and get economic and military aid in return, this is set to embolden the Taliban and increase troubles for the Pakistan Army.
Clearly, the US is following a dangerous policy in South Asia, supporting multiple players against each other to keep all parties off balance.
It remains to be seen how long the US can play this dangerous game, and who will ultimately be the real beneficiary.
- This is an Opinion Article. Views personal of the Author
