Coming events cast their shadows before them!
As the US assembles its most advanced fighter jets, AWACS, tankers, and carriers in the Middle East, a peculiar incident from 2013 stands out as a stark warning to Iran not to overestimate its capabilities.
Back then, two Iranian F-4 Phantoms moved to intercept a U.S. MQ-1 Predator drone flying in international airspace.
However, the Iranian pilots were in for a surprise of their lifetime. The Iranian pilots closed in on the drone and prepared to shoot it. However, an American stealth fighter jet had been flying undetected just below the belly of an Iranian jet.
Soon, the US fighter pilot pulled up to the left side of the Phantom and issued a stark warning that the Iranian pilot, perhaps, would remember for the rest of his life.
“You really oughta go home.”
In that one moment, the Iranian pilot would have understood, far better than any defense analyst, the sea difference in the capabilities of the Iranian and the US Air Force (USAF).
He understood that battling the latest US fighter jets with vintage F-14 Tomcats and F-4 Phantoms was like ‘bringing a knife to a gunfight.’
Fast forward to 2026; the situation has changed dramatically. Though it’s only the US Air Force (USAF) that has enhanced its capabilities, it’s now much more lethal. The Iranian Air Force, meanwhile, is still stuck in a time loop, trying to fight a war in 2026 with an air force from the 1970s.
The miserable situation of the Iranian Air Force is also evident even before the war has started.
On the night of February 19, an Iranian Air Force fighter jet crashed while on a routine training mission, killing one of its two pilots. The air force plane crashed during a late-night training exercise in western Hamadan province, the state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) posted on Telegram.
“The cause of the accident is under investigation,” it added.
According to reports, the crashed fighter jet was an F-4 Phantom, a third-generation fighter jet purchased by the Shah of Iran before the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
F-22 Raptor To F-4 Phantom: “You Ought to Go Home”
In 2013, the USAF F-22 Raptor was escorting an MQ-1 drone on a surveillance mission just outside the Iranian border when two Iranian F-4 Phantoms advanced to intercept it.
Combat jets escorting drones became an SOP (standard operating procedure) after two Sukhoi Su-25 jets operated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards tried to shoot down an American MQ-1 flying a routine surveillance flight in international airspace close to Iran.
The Iranians, oblivious of the new US drone-escort policy, attempted to engage another MQ-1. However, this time, the Iranians sent the F-4 Phantom, a US-origin aircraft that Tehran acquired in the 1970s, to do the job.
When the Iranian F-4 Phantoms were up for the mission, they had a surprise, a shock, rather!
The F-22 had not made its formal combat debut till then.
The stealthy F-22 could track and get beneath the Iranian F-4s undetected. The incident underscored the Raptor’s stealth capabilities.
Though the USAF F-22 Raptor was alone against two F-4 Phantoms, the pilot knew that, thanks to its stealth, thrust vectoring, and advanced avionics, the Iranian pilots had no chance against him.
No Chance Against F-22
Back in 2013, Pentagon press secretary George Little said that an Iranian Air Force F-4 Phantom combat plane tried to shoot down an MQ-1 Predator drone flying through international airspace. The F-4s came within 16 miles of the Predator but broke off the pursuit after an American plane issued a warning message.
Details were withheld at that time due to security reasons. Later, former US Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Welsh told reporters that the fighter jet (F-22) was providing “HVAAE (High-Value Air Asset Escort) for the drone, which had come under attack.”
On September 17, 2013, the general not only confirmed that the escorting fighter was F-22 stealth jet but also said that: “He [the Raptor pilot] flew under their aircraft [the F-4s] to check out their weapons load without them knowing that he was there, and then pulled up on their left wing and then called them and said ‘you really ought to go home.'”
The Vietnam-era F-4 Phantoms had no chance against the fifth-generation F-22 Raptors, optimised for stealth.
The F-4 Phantom served in the US Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps from 1961 onward and remained in service for the United States until 1996. The heavy aircraft is often referred to as a fighter/bomber and a high-speed interceptor.
But by 2013, the F-4 Phantoms were obsolete.
As aerospace expert Harrison Kass explained, “The Iranians flying in Vietnam War-era F-4 Phantoms were ill-equipped to match an F-22. Granted, the F-4 was a capable airframe – the most produced American supersonic military aircraft ever – but it first flew in 1958. The F-22, on the other hand, was an up-to-date, 21st-century marvel.”
The encounter, in which a USAF pilot flies beneath an adversary’s fighter jet undetected, then appears on its side, warning him to go home, despite being outnumbered two to one, had a close Hollywood parallel.
In 1986, Top Gun’s Maverick flew upside down undetected over a Soviet MiG-28 (a fictional number, as MiG only released odd-number jets, such as MiG-7, 15, 17, 21, 29, 31, 35) and surprised his adversary.
However, the F-22 incident was better as it was real, and involved one pilot against two.
After the Iranian F-4 Phantoms abandoned their pursuit of the US drone and backed off, the USAF F-22 Raptor also disappeared in radio silence.
This whole incident lasted only a few minutes, but it captured the decades-long capability gap between Iran’s and the US’s Air Forces.
The event became a widely discussed example of the F-22’s technological superiority and advanced stealth capabilities, enabling it to operate with near impunity against potential threats.
One year later, the F-22 Raptor made its combat debut against the Islamic State in 2014.
Currently, the US has a fleet of nearly 190 F-22 Raptors and approximately 800 F-35s.
This air power difference between Iran on the one side, and the US and Israel was also evident during the 12-day war in June last year.
The Israeli Air Force, equipped with F-15s, F-16s, and F-35s, established complete air superiority over Iranian airspace.
On the last day of the war, the US sent its B-2 Spirit bombers, escorted by F-35s, to bomb Iranian nuclear sites.
Iran is committed to protecting its freedom and sovereignty; however, as Tehran and Washington prepare for another round of war, Iran will do well to remember this incident and assess its capabilities realistically.
The Iranian Air Force is absolutely no match for the combined might of the Israeli and the US Air Force. While Iran operates a legacy fleet of mostly Cold-War era fighter jets, Israel and the US operate over 1,000 fifth-generation stealth fighter jets.
However, Washington should also ponder what it seeks to achieve by declaring war on Iran. If a regime change in Tehran is its objective, there is very little chance the US could achieve it through an air campaign alone, and there is nothing to suggest that President Trump is willing to put any boots on the ground.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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