A storm is brewing in the high seas. One that could directly pit Russia and the US-led NATO against each other.
So far, the Russia-Ukraine War has been contained to Ukraine and the Black Sea. However, if not handled properly, it could soon spread to international waters and disrupt global supply chains, energy security, and maritime trade.
In the last month and a half, the US has seized as many as seven Russian-flagged vessels in the high seas (allegedly part of the Russian shadow fleet) for violating US sanctions.
These vessels have been seized from around the world, including the Indian, Caribbean, and Atlantic Oceans.
Though the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has sanctioned many shadow fleet vessels for their involvement in the illicit trade of Iranian or Russian oil even earlier, never before have US authorities enforced sanctions so aggressively, chasing tankers across the high seas in the shadow of Russian submarines.
Last week, the US expanded its seizures even to the Indian Ocean Region, where its forces seized Aquilla II on February 9 and Veronica III on February 15.
Though the US is aggressively expanding the scope of its seizures of sanctioned vessels, the legal basis for these seizures at sea (at least during peacetime) remains at best opaque.
The US actions have been termed as ‘economic warfare’ through ‘gunboat diplomacy,’ and Russia has called these actions ‘piracy’ in international waters.
Last month, the two superpowers came to the brink of war when US forces boarded and seized a Russian-flagged vessel in the Atlantic despite the deployment of a nuclear-powered Russian submarine in the vicinity.
At that time, Russia’s decision not to escalate the matter while US forces seized Russian flagged vessel in the High Seas with a Russian submarine in the vicinity was widely seen as the Kremlin’s weakness.
As expected, Russia’s inaction further emboldened the US and other European countries.
Later in January, the French navy intercepted a tanker named the Grinch in the Mediterranean Sea, taking the vessel’s Indian captain into custody.
The Grinch had been travelling through the Mediterranean Sea from the Russian Arctic port of Murmansk.
The vessel was released on February 17, following “a costly three-week immobilisation,” only after its owner agreed to pay a fine of several million Euros to France.
In February, the US seized two Russian-flagged vessels in the Indian Ocean Region.
And last week, US-led NATO countries launched ‘Steadfast Dart 26,’ NATO’s largest drills this year, bringing together 10,000 troops from 11 countries, including the UK, France, Germany, Spain, Estonia, Poland, the Netherlands, and Turkey.
As the US expands the scope of its seizure of sanctioned Russian vessels in the High Seas, emboldening even European countries to seize Russia-flagged vessels in the Atlantic, and NATO countries allegedly practice Russia’s naval blockade in the Baltic Sea, Moscow appears increasingly weak in protecting its economic and trade interests in international waters.
From Russia’s perspective, the situation is becoming untenable. The oil trade by Russia’s so-called shadow fleet is a crucial component of Moscow’s revenues that allows it to continue its war effort in Ukraine.
Now, after repeated provocations, it seems that Moscow has finally decided to challenge NATO on the High Seas, and it also involves mobilizing the BRICS countries and the Global South against what Russia calls the West’s unhinged gunboat diplomacy.
Russia Threatens Military Action
Russia has warned that it could deploy its navy to protect its vessels and break the NATO-enforced blockade in the Baltic Sea.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aide and Chairman of the Russian Maritime Board, Nikolai Patrushev, has stated that a permanent naval presence is essential to prevent Western countries from obstructing Russian civilian shipping’s access to international waters and to protect Russian vessels in the High Seas.
“If we don’t give them a tough rebuff, then soon the British, French and even the Balts [Baltic states] will become arrogant to such an extent that they will try to block our country’s access to the seas at least in the Atlantic basin,” he stated.
“In the main maritime areas, including regions far from Russia, substantial forces must be permanently deployed – forces capable of cooling the ardour of Western pirates,” he added.
Patrushev also suggested that, under the guise of naval drills, NATO countries were planning to blockade the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea.
“Any attempt at a naval blockade of our country is completely illegal from the standpoint of international law, and the concept of a ‘shadow fleet’, which EU representatives brandish at every turn, is a legal fiction,” he said.
Patrushev said Russia had to be able to ship oil, grain, and fertiliser to keep its economy operating.
“By implementing their naval blockade plans, the Europeans are deliberately pursuing a scenario of military escalation, testing the limits of our patience and provoking active retaliatory measures… If a peaceful resolution to this situation fails, the blockade will be broken and eliminated by the Navy,” he added.
Patrushev’s warning was also reiterated by Russian Ambassador to Norway Nikolay Korchunov.
Western plans, Nikolay said, were aimed at “restricting freedom of navigation and violates international law norms.”
The ambassador warned that Western plans to use force to restrict Russian access to international waters represented a direct threat to the country’s national security and would force Moscow to take countermeasures.
His comments came after reports that UK Defense Secretary John Healey had met with his counterparts from the Baltic and Nordic nations on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference to discuss seizing Russia-linked oil tankers.
Meanwhile, in an interview with the Russian weekly Argumenty i Fakty, Patrushev said Russia is working to build a “multipolar world order on the oceans” in response to what he called Western hegemony.
“We will tap into the potential of BRICS, which should now be given a full-fledged strategic maritime dimension,” he said.
He added that the first BRICS naval exercise, dubbed “Will for Peace 2026,” was held in January in the South Atlantic and involved Russia, China, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and South Africa.
He said during the naval drill, the BRICS countries practiced protecting maritime trade routes, which are becoming increasingly vulnerable.
Patrushev’s comments about tapping BRICS countries to challenge Western hegemony on the high seas come as Russia, China, and Iran, three full-time BRICS members, launched the ‘Maritime Security Belt 2026’ exercise in the Strait of Hormuz.
It is necessary for BRICS to acquire a strategic maritime dimension, and in this context, joint naval exercises of member countries, such as ‘Will for Peace 2026’ and ‘Maritime Security Belt 2026’, will be immensely beneficial, he said.
The Kremlin understands that the Russian Navy is not a blue-water navy. While the Soviet Union built a global naval force, since the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, Russia has not laid down a single destroyer, cruiser, or aircraft carrier.
The Russian Navy today is more of a coastal defense force than one built to dominate the global seas.
Russia, therefore, understands that the only way it could challenge the might of NATO forces on the high seas is by building alliances, and BRICS is perhaps the most suitable platform for doing that.
However, it remains to be seen to what extent Russian efforts to give a maritime dimension to BRICS will succeed, given that so far, BRICS countries have balked at the prospect of converting it into a military alliance or even launching a BRICS currency.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
