As US President Donald Trump builds a massive force in the Persian Gulf to put pressure on Iran, a subtle symbolic move by China, having far-reaching strategic implications, has triggered speculation over a potential Chinese decision arm Tehran with cutting-edge stealth aircraft.
Last week, as President Trump ordered USS Gerald R. Ford, the US Navy’s most advanced aircraft carrier, to move to the Persian Gulf, where USS Abraham Lincoln is already deployed along with nine other US warships, a Chinese foreign military attaché based in Tehran presented the commander of the Iranian Air Force with a mock-up of China’s J-20 fighter jet.
On February 8, the Chinese military attaché presented a mock-up of the J-20 to Brigadier General Bahman Behmard on the occasion of Iranian Air Force Day.
While no contract has been announced, the timing and symbolism of the Chinese gesture were hard to miss, as it represented more than a ceremonial gesture and was intended to send a message not only to Tehran but also to the US and Israel.
Dr. Farzin Nadimi of the Washington Institute noted, “If China supplies fifth-generation jets to Iran, it would not only bolster Tehran’s deterrence but also signal Beijing’s readiness to challenge U.S. sanctions directly.”
The event was widely covered in Iranian state-run media, triggering speculation that Beijing is considering exporting its most advanced stealth fighter jet, the J-20, to Tehran at a time when the US is amassing its warships in the region.
Notably, China has always maintained that the J-20 is only for the PLA Air Force’s domestic use, and Beijing has never put the fighter jet for export.
Meanwhile, Israeli analyst Tal Inbar cautioned that people should not read too much into a routine diplomatic gesture. “Sometimes a desk model is just that. Don’t hold your breath to see ACTUAL J-20 in Iran.”
So, the question is whether China is actually considering exporting the J-20 fighter jet to Iran, or presenting its mockup model to the Iranian Air Force chief was only meant to send a strategic message to Washington that Tehran is not isolated and Beijing is willing to support it politically, technologically, and militarily.
Iran and China Strategic Partnership
In 2021, Iran and China signed the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which institutionalised defense cooperation, joint exercises, and technology exchange as pillars of bilateral relations.
Under this framework, China has emerged as one of Iran’s foremost defense partners, supplying drones, missile technology, radars, and air defense systems to the country.
Meanwhile, China, Iran, and Russia are also conducting the ‘Maritime Security Belt 2026’ naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz.
In recent times, China has supplied the HQ-9B Long-Range Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) System and YLC-8B Radars to Iran.
Last month, reports also suggested that Beijing supplied hypersonic-capable medium-range ballistic missiles Dongfeng-17 (DF-17) to Iran, which could target US assets in the region.
According to reports, China has also supplied thousands of tons of Sodium Perchlorate, used to produce solid propellant for mid-range ballistic missiles, to Iran.
Iran was also interested in buying the J-10C, China’s 4.5th-generation fighter jet; however, no deal has been announced to date.
On the other hand, China buys up to 95% of Iranian oil, as most countries have eliminated Iranian oil imports due to the sanctions threat. Beijing’s dependence on Iranian oil has further increased after the collapse of the Maduro regime in Venezuela following his abduction by the US military.
Clearly, the two countries enjoy a robust defense partnership. However, could China elevate this strategic partnership to a new level by exporting its most advanced stealth fighter jet to Iran?
At this stage, this seems highly unlikely.
Firstly, China has never offered the J-20 Mighty Dragon for export to any country, including its all-weather friend Pakistan, which imports nearly 80% of its defense equipment from China.
In this sense, China has closely guarded the J-20, just like the US has never offered the F-22 Raptor for export, while 18 countries have already signed contracts for the F-35 Lightning II.
In fact, China has offered its second stealth fighter, the J-35A, for export. Even if China were considering exporting its stealth fighter to Iran, the J-35A would be a more likely option.
Exporting the J-20 means risking exposing its signatures, systems, and maintenance methods to foreign countries.
This risk is particularly acute in Iran, as it is common knowledge that Israeli intelligence operatives have deeply infiltrated Iranian society.
It is worth noting that in September last year, a viral post on the Chinese microblogging site Sohu lamented that “Iran is infiltrated like a sieve, and China is worried about technology leaks.”
A running joke in the Chinese military is: “Selling fighter jets to Iran is like giving blueprints to Israel.”
The Israeli spy agency Mossad has deeply infiltrated all sections of Iranian society, as illustrated by repeated successful assassinations of nuclear scientists and military leaders in Iran.
Therefore, exporting the J-20 to Iran could mean exposing its vulnerabilities to the US, which could prove detrimental to Beijing in the Indo-Pacific theatre.
Supplying the J-20 to Iran could also prove to be a logistics nightmare for Beijing. There is the issue of training Iranian pilots on the fighter.
Notably, China has avoided signing any formal defense agreements with Iran recently, as it could prove politically costly.
Besides, a stealth aircraft requires high-quality coatings, maintenance procedures, suitable hangars, and a reliable parts supply chain. Until Beijing provides these logistics channels to Tehran, supplying its frontline jet to Iran makes little sense.
Furthermore, in the absence of adequate training and maintenance channels, the J-20 is unlikely to perform to its full potential in Iran, where it could be pitted against the US’s most advanced fighter jets, such as the F-22 and F-35. China is unlikely to take that risk.
In this regard as well, the viral post on Sohu succinctly explained China’s fears.
“Buying only fighter jets is a waste of money. If you (Iran) imitate India’s Rafale and fight alone, you will only be beaten by Israel again. Modern air combat is a ‘system fight’ rather than a ‘one-on-one duel of fighter jets.”
“Pakistan was able to counter India thanks to the early warning aircraft, data links, and Hongqi-16 (HQ-16) air defense missiles sold by China in a package, with all the equipment connected for combat,” the blog post claimed.
Iran’s ground-based radars are antique European and American, and its early warning systems are a Soviet legacy, with no interoperability, it said. Thus, according to Chinese experts, Iran should prioritize modern air defense systems.
“From a strategic perspective, Iran urgently needs to improve its air defense and anti-missile capabilities, rather than simply strengthening its air force’s offensive power. Only by improving its air defense system can it more effectively respond to Israeli air and missile strikes.”
It suggested that to deal with Israel’s F-35 stealth fighter jets, Iran needs to purchase China’s meter-wave anti-stealth radar, which can make the “American F-35 fighter jets run naked”.
For these reasons, it is highly unlikely that China is considering exporting the J-20 to Iran or that a deal will be announced soon.
What is much more likely is that, by putting it on the table, Beijing is testing the waters, gauging reactions, without tying its hands in an actual deal. It is a low-cost, high-impact signal.
China, probably, wants to send a strategic message to the US that Iran is not isolated and Beijing stands ready to support it politically, diplomatically, and even militarily.
The photo-op of the Chinese military attaché gifting a J-20 mockup to the Iranian Air Force Chief should be treated as a strategic communication maneuver rather than a sign of an actual deal.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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