Speaking to AFP, Lai said he was confident parliament would approve an additional $40 billion in funding to support critical defence acquisitions.
China’s President Xi Jinping has cautioned the US against selling weapons to Taiwan, but Lai said Washington will stand by Taiwan and will not need to use it as a “bargaining chip” with Beijing.
Lai said if China seized Taiwan, Beijing would become “more aggressive, undermining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific and the rules-based international order.”
“If Taiwan were annexed by China, China’s expansionist ambitions would not stop there,” Lai told AFP during an exclusive interview on Tuesday at the Presidential Office Building in Taipei.
“The next countries under threat would be Japan, the Philippines, and others in the Indo-Pacific region, with repercussions eventually reaching the Americas and Europe,” he said.
Last year, Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi created furore in Beijing when she suggested that Tokyo could intervene militarily if China attacked Taiwan.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos has also warned that the archipelago nation, where US troops have access to nine military bases, would “inevitably” be dragged into a war over Taiwan.
“In this changing world, nations belong to a global community — a situation in any one country would inevitably impact another,” Lai said.
Earlier, an OPED published on the Chinese website Sohu in 2021 detailed how Beijing could settle scores with its neighbors and seize territories it had lost. It must be added that Beijing consistently denies expansionist intent, emphasizing peaceful development and viewing Taiwan as an internal matter.
Here’s what the 2021 OPED claimed.
Taiwan
The article argued for a war to unify Taiwan with mainland China. It said China must issue an ultimatum to Taiwan: choose peaceful unification or war.
The likely case, the author wrote, would be a full-scale war with Taiwan, adding that without US or Japanese intervention, the PLA would face a 3-month ordeal to win.
And with their intervention, it’d last a little longer, and the Chinese military would return as the victor, the article claimed.
South China Sea
After “conquering” Taiwan, China will take a much-deserved two-year rest. Soon, it will send yet another ultimatum to the countries surrounding the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.
The “news” article considered a 2030 deadline appropriate for this ultimatum. After that, the country will go on “re-conquesting” these islands.
The author expects minimal resistance from Southeast Asian countries, which will, quite obviously, still be shivering in the wake of China’s annexation of Taiwan.
The US, having learned a hard lesson from whatever intervention it tried to do in Taiwan, would not directly confront China, but egg on countries, most likely the Philippines and Vietnam.
If it comes to this, the article states that Beijing’s best option is to declare war on Vietnam, win it, and intimidate other countries to surrender the Spratly Islands.
So, by 2030, China would have thoroughly extended its influence to the Pacific. In the smooth process of war and recovery, Beijing would also have gained begrudging allies in Southeast Asia.
Southern Tibet (2035-40)
Off to the third war: the “reconquest” of Southern Tibet, a term Beijing uses to denote India’s Arunachal Pradesh. The article presents an analysis of potential military dealings that India would have with China’s adversaries, like the US and Europe.
It suggests that the most efficient strategy would be to incite the disintegration of India, the country that has, to date, survived all its secessionist movements since its independence.
But if that doesn’t work, the second-best option is to incite India-Pakistan’s fight over Kashmir and take over Southern Tibet while India is distracted.
Senkaku Islands (2040-2045)
The 4th war is about the unification of the Senkaku (Chinese: Diaoyu) and Okinawa (Chinese: Ryukyu) islands that Japan controls and China claims.
Between 2040 and 2045, the article implies, would be a good time for some more reconquesting. Simple plan: China attacks these “illegally occupied” islands; the US, Europe, and Russia silently watch; the war ends in 6 months (at most), and China scores an overwhelming victory.
Outer Mongolia (2045-2050)
The article says the 5th war will be in Outer Mongolia. Historically, Outer Mongolia was part of the Qing Dynasty until declaring independence in 1911.
The Republic of China (Taiwan) claimed Outer Mongolia as territory and recognized its independence following a 1945 referendum, rescinded this in 1953, and officially re-recognized Mongolia’s independence in 2002.
China (PRC) recognized Mongolia’s independence since 1949, and current PRC-Mongolia relations are characterized by a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.”
However, the author claimed that by 2045, given the amount of clout China would have amassed, it would only be a matter of issuing an ultimatum, which may or may not be followed by war. The author confidently states that the war will result in a Chinese victory.
Russia (2055-2060)
The last stop for China would be Russia. China has lost land to Russia, and the Russians will have to pay, the author has stated.
China lost approximately 1.5 million square kilometres of territory to the Russian Empire during the 19th century through what are now termed “unequal treaties”. These regions, primarily in Northeast and Northwest Asia, were ceded during the late Qing Dynasty when China was weakened by internal strife and the Opium War.
The author is quite confident that, even when facing a major nuclear and military power and an ex-superpower, the PLA will be the victor.
