After threatening imminent strikes on Iran for days, Trump seems to have pulled back from the cusp of another war, it initially appeared. But now, the US President says the US “Armada” is on its way!
On January 2, Trump used the threat of U.S. military action to try to convince Tehran not to shoot at or kill protesters.
“We are locked and loaded and ready to go,” Trump posted on social media.
Less than 24 hours later, the US launched its military operation not on Iran but on Venezuela, abducting its President, Nicolas Maduro, and his wife.
In the coming days, Iranian protests spread like wildfire, and the sharpshooters of the Iranian regime, the dreaded Basij units, responded liberally with bullets.
“Help is on its way,” Trump posted again, exhorting Iranians to continue protesting and occupy the government buildings.
Notwithstanding Trump’s warnings, the Iranian regime killed thousands of protesters, some reports suggest over 20,000.
However, instead of doubling down, Trump pulled back, saying he had received assurances from “very important sources” that Iran had stopped killing protesters and was not moving forward with executions.
In the coming days, Greenland occupied Trump’s attention.
The world breathed a sigh of relief. The spectre of another war with another major oil-producing country seemed to be over.
On his way back from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump told reporters on Air Force One the United States was sending a “massive fleet” toward Iran “just in case.”
“We’re watching Iran,” he said. “I’d rather not see anything happen, but we’re watching them very closely.”
Trump Has Used Deception Earlier
Trump has a reputation for not being very good at hiding his emotions and for speaking his mind. However, contrary to this image, the man is capable of deception.
Last year, during the Iran-Israel war, President Trump used strategic deception and “fake-out” tactics to mislead Iran and maintain tactical surprise before the launch of Operation Midnight Hammer.
On June 19, 2025, Trump publicly stated he would take two weeks to decide whether the U.S. would join Israel’s ongoing air campaign against Iran, citing a “substantial chance of negotiation”.
Two days later, on June 21, Trump dispatched seven B-2 Spirit bombers to pound Iranian nuclear sites.
Even during the actual operation, as B-2 stealth bombers took off from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri for the actual strike, a decoy flight was sent west toward the Pacific and Guam. This led observers and Iranian intelligence to believe the movement was merely pre-positioning rather than an immediate attack.
A White House official later confirmed that Trump’s 14-day timeline was a deliberate choice to encourage Iranian complacency.
The question is, was Trump’s public climb-down from the threat of attacking Iran meant to deceive Tehran once again into a false sense of complacency?
The US’s massive military buildup in the Middle East seems to suggest precisely that.
The U.S.’s Massive Military Build-Up
Over the last two weeks, the United States has significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East, primarily through the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) deploying a massive “armada” and advanced air and naval assets near Iran.
These deployments have bolstered the US’s offensive capabilities, improved logistics, strengthened air defenses, and enhanced air superiority capabilities.
While officially described as preparatory rather than offensive, the strategy mirrors the US’s gradual military buildup in the Caribbean before the Venezuela operation and in the Middle East before Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025.
Meanwhile, according to The Wall Street Journal, President Trump has continued to press his advisers for “decisive” military options against Iran, even after backing away from a strike last week.
Senior U.S. officials told the paper that the president repeatedly uses the word “decisive” when describing the impact he wants any American action against Iran to have.
Naval Assets
The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG), including the aircraft carrier equipped with F-35C and F/A-18 fighter jets, guided-missile destroyers, and at least one attack submarine, transited the Strait of Malacca from the South China Sea into the Indian Ocean earlier this week.
It is now heading toward the Persian Gulf and expected to enter CENTCOM’s area of responsibility within the next five to six days.
Geoview Military Tracker confirms that the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) carrier strike group has entered the Arabian Sea, continuing its westward movement toward the Middle East. pic.twitter.com/cgAO9VaWQb
— Geo View (@theGeoView) January 22, 2026
According to the latest reports, the CSG has now gone “dark” by turning off its AIS transponder for operational security.
Separately, USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) departed her homeport of Naval Station Norfolk and is now operating in the Atlantic Ocean.
Reports suggest that it might be bound for Europe or the Middle East. However, there is no confirmation yet.
Additionally, in the Persian Gulf, two US destroyers with precision-strike and air-defense capabilities are operating alongside three mine-countermeasure ships to counter potential Iranian threats to the Strait of Hormuz.
Air Assets
On January 18, 12 F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets from the 494th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron at RAF Lakenheath, UK, were redeployed to bases in Jordan, supported by KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refueling aircraft from the 100th Air Refueling Wing and C-130 cargo aircraft.
On January 20, the U.S. Central Command publicly acknowledged the movement and released a photo of an F-15 landing at one of its bases.
“The F-15’s presence enhances combat readiness and promotes regional security and stability,” CENTCOM said in an X post.
A U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle assigned to the 494th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron lands at a base in the Middle East, Jan. 18. The F-15's presence enhances combat readiness and promotes regional security and stability. pic.twitter.com/QTXgOsOozV
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) January 20, 2026
Notably, during “Operation Midnight Hammer” last June, dozens of refueling aircraft took part. The tankers enabled the bombers to fly from the US to Iran and back, a trip of around 18,000 kilometers.
The tankers also refueled the F-35s and other combat aircraft escorting them.
There has also been an increase in C-17 Globemaster III cargo jets heading toward the region.
High-res satellite imagery released by MizarVision from yesterday shows multiple C-17 Globemaster III transport aircraft and F-15 fighter jets deployed at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan. pic.twitter.com/IJNzX0IiBL
— Delta OSINT (@OSINTDelta) January 22, 2026
Ground and Defensive Assets
Since Iran will respond to any attack with a barrage of missiles and drone strikes on Israel, and possibly other US military bases in the region, the US needs to beef up its air defense assets in the region.
According to reports in both US and Israeli media, additional Patriot missile batteries and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems are being rushed to the region.
CENTCOM also posted an image of an Electronic Advanced Ground Launcher System in the Middle East in a recent post.
The Electronic Advanced Ground Launcher System counters drone threats with precision. The system features a 70mm rocket launcher that uses laser-guided rockets such as the Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System and is an adaptable and cost-effective counter-unmanned aircraft… pic.twitter.com/Zbe1HiX53S
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) January 18, 2026
According to reports, the U.S. Air Force has also flown M1 Abrams tanks and M2 Bradley Fighting Vehicles to the region.
The US maintains around 30,000 troops in the region, spread across bases such as Al Udeid in Qatar, the Fifth Fleet HQ in Bahrain, Al Dhafra in the UAE, and sites in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Turkey.
Meanwhile, Israel is also preparing for potential Iranian retaliatory strikes. Israeli officials say they are willing to suffer a massive Iranian barrage if it means a new government in Tehran.
“Even in an extreme scenario involving the launch of 700 missiles from Iran—compared to approximately 500 launched during Operation Rising Lion—the strategic cost-benefit assessment in Jerusalem remains fundamentally unchanged,” Israel’s YNET news outlet reported.
“In the view of Israeli decision-makers, if a military operation could lead to the collapse of the Iranian regime, the price would not only be acceptable but worthwhile, particularly given the capabilities pushed to their limits in the recent conflict.”
These deployments suggest a robust military buildup of both defensive and offensive capabilities.
The big question remains if these assets could achieve anything more than another round of punitive strikes on Iran and degrading its military and nuclear infrastructure.
If the real goal is regime change in Tehran and bringing Reza Pehalvi to power, then a ground operation is a must.
Iran’s exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, is preparing to return to his country. He has been living in the US since 1978. “Pahlavi will return” has been a popular slogan on the streets of Iran during recent protests.
Meanwhile, IRGC commander General Mohammad Pakpour warned Israel and the United States “to avoid any miscalculations” and learn from “what they learned in the 12-day imposed war, so that they do not face a more painful and regrettable fate”.
“The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and dear Iran have their finger on the trigger, more prepared than ever, ready to carry out the orders and measures of the supreme commander-in-chief,” he was quoted by state television on the IRGC’s national day.
