One of the most enduring defense controversies of 2025 was whether the Indian Air Force (IAF) lost a Rafale fighter jet during its clash with Pakistan in May 2025, and, if so, then how many?
On one side was Dassault Aviation’s Rafale, widely regarded as the best European fighter jet. Combat-tested in multiple battlefields, the aircraft entered the duel with an unscathed combat record.
No Rafale has ever been lost in combat. Its SPECTRA self-protection suite had attained almost mythical invincibility. On the other side was an upstart Chinese novice fighter jet that had never been combat-tested, the J-10C.
Pakistan initially claimed that it had shot down a Rafale. Then it claimed to have shot down three Rafales.
Nearly one month after the conflict, Islamabad, growing ever more confident in its own propaganda skills, started claiming that it shot down four Indian Rafale fighter jets.
The Chinese media, for obvious reasons, capitalized on these claims and launched a coordinated misinformation campaign against Rafale, with defense officials at Chinese embassies circulating fake, AI-generated images and videos of Rafale being shot down.
France’s Defense Ministry accused China’s embassies of orchestrating a targeted smear campaign to undercut Rafale sales and push the J-10C as a cheaper option. French intelligence traced fake images, AI-generated clips, and thousands of new social media accounts spreading tales of downed Rafales.
“The Rafale was not randomly targeted,” said a French Defense Ministry note. “By attacking the aircraft, certain actors sought to undermine the credibility of France and its defense industrial and technological base.”
Meanwhile, Rafale did not seem to have much impact on its popularity. In June, Indonesia signed a Letter of Intent (LoI) for 12 more Rafale jets. In July, it was reported that Jakarta was considering doubling its order to 24 new Rafale jets.
In the same month, two high-level French officials reportedly confirmed that India lost one Rafale jet.
Meanwhile, Dassault Aviation Chairman and CEO Éric Trappier reportedly said that India lost one of its Rafale jets. However, he attributed the loss to a technical failure at high altitude rather than to a direct shoot-down.
The report appeared on the French website Avion De Chasse, stating that the incident occurred “at an altitude of over 12,000 meters during an extended training mission, with no enemy involvement or hostile radar contact“.
However, adding to the mystery, within 24 hours, Dassault Aviation denied Trappier’s remarks.
In an official note, the company said: “In response to certain press reports quoting Dassault Aviation Chairman & CEO, Eric Trappier, about the Sindoor operation, Dassault Aviation formally denies that Eric Trappier has made any operational or technical comments regarding the use of the Rafale in this operation.”
However, the figure of one Rafale loss was corroborated indirectly by some Indian officials as well.
In July, India’s Defense Secretary RK Singh told a news channel, “You have used the term Rafales in the plural, I can assure you that is absolutely not correct. Pakistan suffered losses many times over India in both human and material terms, and more than 100 terrorists.”
There were also claims suggesting that Indian and Dassault officials were at each other’s throats over the Rafale’s “poor performance”.
Notwithstanding these baseless reports, in September last year, the IAF submitted a proposal to the Ministry of Defense to acquire 114 additional Rafale fighter jets as part of its plan to expand its fleet.
That was a clear sign that, despite Pakistani and Chinese claims and negative reporting in international media, the IAF still believed in Rafale’s prowess.
The IAF has also maintained that it achieved all its operational objectives during Operation Sindoor, hitting nine terrorist camps and 11 Pakistani air bases across the length and breadth of the country.
Yet, in the absence of official confirmation on how many Rafales were lost, doubts persisted, allowing Pakistan to continue making outlandish claims.
Mystery Over
However, nearly seven months after the conflict, it seems the mystery is “officially” over. There is still no official confirmation, but the new revelation suggests that India indeed lost one Rafale jet, either to enemy action or to a technical failure.
Earlier this week, multiple French and Indian media outlets reported that New Delhi and Paris are close to finalizing the deal to acquire 114 Rafale jets.
According to the reports, the deal could be signed as early as February 2026, during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to India.
Under the model under consideration, France will supply 18 Rafale jets in fly-away condition, while the remaining 96 will be made in India. The indigenous content is expected to be around 30%.
The deal could cost a whopping USD 36 billion.
However, buried in these big numbers was a significant detail that all media outlets missed.
The French defense aviation website, Avions Legendaires, which was the first to report this story on January 11, wrote: “The thirty-five current Rafale F3s in service with the Indian Air Force will be upgraded to the F4 standard in parallel, as is the case in France for the Air and Space Force and the Navy with their F3-R aircraft. This could be considered phase one of the contract.”
In 2016, India signed a deal to buy 36 Rafale fighter jets from France for around US$8.7 billion.
All 36 jets were delivered by 2022. India has not lost any Rafale jets as of May 2025.
Now, if India is discussing a proposal to upgrade 35 of its existing F3 Rafales to the F4 level, it is obvious that India lost one Rafale jet in 2025.
The conclusion is consistent with multiple statements made over the course of last year, including by the Dassault CEO and the French Air Force chief, asserting that India lost only one Rafale jet.
However, this does not reveal how the IAF lost its Rafale.
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China Claims
Though China has now officially claimed that the J-10CE made its combat debut in May 2025, and shot down multiple aircraft, without suffering any loss itself.
On January 9, China’s State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence released its “Top Ten News Stories of the National Defence Science and Technology Industry for 2025,” listing the J-10CE fighter’s combat debut.
Meanwhile, according to a January 12 Xinhua report, the J-10CE “successfully shot down multiple enemy aircraft while sustaining zero losses” during an aerial engagement in May 2025.
The J-10CE fighter jet is an all-weather, single-engine, single-seat, multi-role fighter jet developed by China. Till now, Pakistan has been its only export customer.
These back-to-back revelations in the same week might finally put to rest the Rafale controversy, one of last year’s most enduring defense debates.
India achieved all its operational objectives during Operation Sindoor, but did lose one Rafale during the operation. Meanwhile, India said Pakistan lost nearly 13 aircraft in the operation, but Islamabad has not acknowledged anything.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
