IRAN WAR: Why Tehran Won’t Strike U.S. Base in Turkey Despite Vowing to Target All Regional Facilities – OPED

By
Sakshi Tiwari
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Tehran has warned that if the United States strikes Iranian territory, every US military base in the region, from Bahrain to the UAE, could become a legitimate target for counterstrikes.

However, there may be one glaring exception that Tehran is likely to steer clear of: Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base.

With Iran making desperate efforts to contain its worst domestic unrest in decades, US President Donald Trump has sided with the demonstrators, threatening to attack Tehran.

Voicing support for the demonstrators and an alleged bloody crackdown on them by the Iranian government, Trump earlier said, “Help is on the Way,”  triggering fears that another airstrike on the West Asian state may be imminent.

Trump toned down his aggressive posturing on January 15, saying that he had been told “the killing in Iran has stopped.” However, the military action against the country has not been ruled out.

In fact, some of the latest decisions taken by the US in the region point towards a possible attack on Iran, including pulling some troops from key bases in the region as a precaution and the setting up of a new coordination cell (MEAD-CDOC) in Al-Udeid to enhance regional forces’ ability to cooperate and coordinate air and missile duties.

Additionally, some reports suggest that the Pentagon has ordered the deployment of USS Abraham Lincoln carrier from the South China Sea to the Middle Eastern theatre.

“All the signals are that a US attack is imminent, but that is also how this administration behaves to keep everyone on their toes. Unpredictability is part of the strategy,” a Western military official told Reuters on January 14.

For now, the US President has indicated that the White House is taking a “wait and watch” approach, while Iran has reportedly opened its airspace.

But analysts have warned that the threat to Iran could be serious, particularly after the back-to-back military campaigns undertaken by the Trump administration against Iran last year and Venezuela this year.

However, Iran is not Venezuela, and could put up a meaningful fight.

Israel’s war against Iran hit a stalemate in June last year because Tel Aviv probably underestimated the Islamic regime’s war-fighting capability. Iran boasts of a massive arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones, and superior defence systems, compared to Venezuela.

With fears of an impending US attack, Iran has reportedly told regional countries (such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE, among others) that the American bases on their respective territories will be attacked if the US targets Iran.

The United States maintains a substantial military presence in the Middle East, with approximately 40,000–50,000 troops stationed across the region, well within reach of Iranian drones and missiles.

Some of these facilities are:

  • The Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is the largest US base in the region and the forward headquarters for the US Central Command (CENTCOM)
  • The Naval Support Activity Bahrain is the headquarters for the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, which effectively oversees maritime operations in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and parts of the Indian Ocean.
  • Several key military sites in Kuwait, including Camp Arifjan (the logistics and Army Central headquarters) and Ali Al Salem Air Base.
  • Al Dhafra Air Base in Abu Dhabi, UAE, is a critical US Air Force hub for reconnaissance, air operations, and missions against groups like ISIS.
  • Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia supports air defence with the cutting-edge Patriot and THAAD systems, as well as other operations.
  • Muwaffaq al Salti Air Base in Jordan hosts the US Air Force Central’s 332nd Air Expeditionary Wing.
  • Ain Al Asad Air Base in Iraq hosts US troops and supports Iraqi security forces, and is contributing to the NATO mission.
  • Incirlik Air Base in Turkey is jointly run by the US and Turkey, and is home to nuclear warheads.

Of these, Iran attacked the Al Asad Air Base in Iraq in 2020 in response to Qasem Soleimani’s assassination, and the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on June 23, 2025, in retaliation for a US attack on its nuclear facilities.

Additionally, Iran-backed militias have conducted several drone and rocket attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria since 2020, as well as on targets in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

It is, however, pertinent to remember that Iran may choose to attack all but one country in the region: Turkey.

This handout photo provided by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) official website Sepah News on February 1, 2025, shows a test launch during the unveiling of the Ghadr-380 naval cruise missile in an undisclosed location in Iran.

Iran Unlikely To Attack Base In Turkey 

Situated near Adana in Turkey, Incirlik Air Base is an important military base for US and NATO operations in the MENA (Middle East North Africa) region. The base houses Turkish Air Force personnel in addition to US Air Force units, and is considered a major hub for regional security missions.

The base played crucial roles during the Cold War, including U-2 reconnaissance flights over the Soviet Union, the 1958 Lebanon crisis, and later operations like the Gulf War of 1991, anti-ISIS missions in Syria and Iraq, and support for operations in Afghanistan.

The base’s strategic location near Iran, Iraq, and Syria enables a quick response to regional crises.

The base hosts a range of NATO and US aircraft, including fighters, tankers, and cargo planes. Additionally, it serves as a logistics hub and forward base for potential hotspots in the Middle East, supporting reconnaissance, refuelling, and rapid-response missions.

But, more importantly, the base is home to an estimated 20-50 US B61 tactical nuclear gravity bombs under NATO’s nuclear-sharing program.

Home page of Incirlik Air Base
File: Incirlik Air Base

Therefore, a hypothetical Iranian attack on Incirlik Air Base could be considered highly escalatory.

Turkey is a NATO member, and an attack on its sovereign territory, including US bases there, could trigger Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.

Under Article 5, an attack on one ally is an attack on all.

In fact, a close Iranian ally, Russia, has also refrained from launching a direct attack on a NATO state in its nearly four-year war with Ukraine.

Some experts argue that if Iran’s attack is seen as retaliation for US strikes, Article 5 might not apply, as it ties into the UN Charter’s right of self-defence and excludes cases where the attacked party is the initial aggressor.

Nonetheless, the threat of a collective NATO response and a massive offensive may be enough to deter Iran. 

Turkey is the second-largest standing force in NATO after the USA and has one of the most powerful militaries in the world. According to the 2026 Global Firepower Index, Turkey’s military ranks eighth in the world, well ahead of Iran.

Turkish drones, such as Akinci, Anka, and TB-2, have been deployed in several war zones, such as in the Libyan Civil War, against Kurdish operations in Syria, in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, and against Russia, showing the advancement and reliability of Turkish arms. These drones, as well as their combat-hardened fighter jets, could be mobilised quickly.

While Turkey has urged de-escalation, an attack on its soil could force Ankara to align more closely with the US, potentially isolating Iran further.

Additionally, Iran would think several times before attacking a base that hosts nuclear weapons, which could have devastating consequences and lead to a disproportionate military response by the USA and its NATO allies.

While Iran’s threats encompass US bases across the region, the Incirlik Air Base in Turkey possibly stands as a clear red line.

 

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