When did the Russia-Ukraine War actually begin? Some people might say February 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Some could say March 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea.
Some might even suggest that this war actually started in November 2013, when the then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign a pro-European Union agreement, leading to intense and often violent protests from pro-Western Ukrainians.
The violence ultimately led to the famous Maidan protests in February 2014, which forced Yanukovych to flee Ukraine.
In March, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded by annexing Crimea after a hastily convened referendum voted to join the Russian Federation with an overwhelming majority. Critics allege that the referendum was rigged.
Some might even go back to 2008, when Ukraine and Georgia were invited to join NATO, a red line for Moscow and one of the main reasons for the conflict.
Others might even claim that they first read the signs of an impending Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2007, during Putin’s now-famous speech at the 43rd Munich Security Conference, when Putin first warned against a unipolar world and NATO’s unhinged Eastward expansion.
“I think it is obvious,” Putin said, “that NATO expansion does not have any relation with the modernisation of the Alliance itself or with ensuring security in Europe.”
“On the contrary, it represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust. And we have the right to ask: against whom is this expansion intended? And what happened to the assurances our Western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact? Where are those declarations today? No one even remembers them.”
The speech is correctly read as Putin’s declaration of war against a unipolar world, dominated by the US with active support from the EU, that assigns a subordinate role to Russia.
All these positions have some element of truth. The Ukraine War was in the making, not for a few years, but for at least a few decades.
However, newly declassified US government documents show that the Ukraine War has its origins even earlier. In fact, the preface for the Russia-Ukraine War was written between 2001 and 2008, during the Bush-Putin era.
The US government has released the verbatim transcripts of Putin’s meetings and telephone calls with U.S. President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2008. The transcripts were released as a result of a Freedom of Information lawsuit by the National Security Archive.
The documents show that Russian President Putin was Bush’s close ally in 2001 with their shared anti-terrorism focus, Putin’s on Chechnya and Bush’s on Al-Qaeda, to the point that Bush exclaimed, “You’re the type of guy I like to have in the foxhole with me.”
This was a period when Russia and the US had broadly similar foreign policy on a range of issues, ranging from terrorism to nuclear proliferation. Moscow and Washington’s views also converged on Iran and North Korea.
Russia was integrating with the global financial system, and Moscow worked to become a part of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
In fact, there was also a brief moment when Russia seriously considered joining NATO.
However, by 2008, the script had flipped, and the optimism was over. The West rescinded its offer for Russia to join NATO. In fact, in its place, the West invited Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO.
By the end of Bush’s time in office, Putin had aired his severe criticisms of U.S. policies such as invading Iraq and expanding NATO eastwards.
Reading those conversations now, when the Russia-Ukraine War is about to enter its fifth year, and hundreds of thousands of people have died, and millions have been displaced, one can not help but regret how we missed so many warning signs, how we failed to fathom what was so obvious, how the world sleepwalked into this abyss.
Ukraine In NATO: Russia’s Constant Red Line Since The Disolution Of The Soviet Union
Earlier this year, writing in the UK tabloid Daily Mail, popular conservative columnist Peter Hitchens said, “The war, they say, was not provoked. Seldom in history has a war been more provoked.”
“Russians, nice ones like the liberal, democratic politician Yegor Gaidar, and nasty ones like the bloody despot Vladimir Putin, begged the West to stop trundling its military alliance, Nato, eastwards towards Russia.”
“These protests reached their peak in February 2007, when Putin made a dramatic speech in Munich.”
However, Hitchens lamented, the West ignored all these protests.
Now it turns out that the West received not one but multiple warnings from Moscow.
Consider, for example, this prophetic statement made by Putin about Ukraine during his first meeting with US President Bush in 2001 in Slovenia.
Talking about the erstwhile Soviet Union, Putin said: “What really happened? Soviet goodwill changed the world, voluntarily. And, the Russians gave up thousands of square kilometers of territory voluntarily. Unheard of. Ukraine, part of Russia for centuries, given away. Kazakhstan, given away. The Caucasus, too.”
It’s remarkable how, even in 2001, Putin stressed only Ukraine as part of Russia for centuries.
During this meeting, Putin, in his own subtle way, also forewarned that it’s the US policies that push Moscow to get closer to North Korea.
“I know of concerns about Russia’s relations with rogue states. Do you think I like them?” Putin asked Bush.
“I went to North Korea because the United States was using North Korea’s missile program as an excuse to abrogate the ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) Treaty. So I went,” Putin explained.
In 2024, over two decades after these statements, Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense treaty, and North Korean soldiers are fighting in the Ukraine War on Moscow’s behalf.
Putin was frank enough to accept that he uses North Korea as “leverage.”
Explaining his visit to North Korea, Putin said, “When the Soviet Union fell apart, dangers appeared on Russia’s southern border. We face Islamic radicalism. I needed leverage and could get it no other way; the old leverage was gone. My new friends deserted me. There was no debt reduction.”
Talking about NATO enlargement, Putin said, “Let me return to NATO enlargement. You know our position. You have made an important statement when you said that Russia is no enemy.”
“Russia is European and multi-ethnic, like the United States. I can imagine us becoming allies… But we feel left out of NATO. If Russia is not part of this, of course, it feels left out. Why is NATO enlargement needed? In 1954, the Soviet Union applied to join NATO. I have the document.”
Putin’s mention of the Soviet Union seeking to join NATO was meant to convey that, because the West did not include the Kremlin in NATO, the Kremlin was forced to sign the Warsaw Pact in 1955, its answer to NATO.
Putin would say that the West’s insistence not to make Russia part of NATO, instead offering NATO membership to Ukraine and Georgia, was what led to the Georgia War (2008) and the Ukraine War.
Next, Putin and Bush met in the Oval Office in 2005.
Here, the conversation was mostly limited to the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs, and both Moscow and Washington seem to be on the same page to stop nuclear proliferation at any cost.
By the time Putin and Bush met again in 2008 at Sochi, the environment had changed entirely. Putin made his fiery Munich speech in 2007, warning against a unipolar world, American hegemony, and NATO’s eastward expansion.
The tone is strikingly different from the early conversations, in which both presidents pledged cooperation on all issues and expressed a commitment to a strong personal relationship. This meeting takes place right after the NATO summit in Bucharest, where tensions flared over the U.S. campaign to secure invitations for Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO.
President Putin brought up the issue of missile defense and monitoring of sites in the Czech Republic and Poland.
“We realize the most important thing is to ensure transparency and ongoing monitoring of sites in the Czech Republic and Poland.”
“I’ve told that to the Czechs and Poles as well. It’s not about any infringement on their sovereignty. It’s natural that we see what’s going on and whether it’s targeted against us. It’s that simple. The military shares this view,” Putin said.
On NATO membership for Ukraine, Putin said, “I just want to say it out loud. I’d like to emphasize accession to NATO of a country like Ukraine will create for the long-term, a field of conflict for you and us, long-term confrontation.”
In words that sound both prophetic and that also explain his own biases towards Ukraine, his refusal to accept Ukrainian nationhood, Putin said, “Seventeen million Russians live in Ukraine, a third of the population. Ukraine is a very complex state. This is not a nation built in a natural manner. It’s an artificial country created back in Soviet times.”
“Following World War II, Ukraine obtained territory from Poland, Romania, and Hungary -that’s pretty much all of western Ukraine. In the 1920s and 1930s, Ukraine obtained territory from Russia — that’s the eastern part of the country. In 1956, the Crimean Peninsula was transferred to Ukraine. It’s a rather large European country built with a population of 45 million. It’s populated by people with very different mindsets.”
“NATO is perceived by a large part of the Ukrainian population as a hostile organization.”
Then, mincing no words, Putin warned that Russia would use the pro-Russian segment of the Ukrainian population to create problems for Kyiv.
“This creates the following problems for Russia. This creates the threat of military bases and new military systems being deployed in the proximity of Russia. It created uncertainties and threats for us. And relying on the anti-NATO forces in Ukraine, Russia would be working on stripping NATO of the possibility of enlarging. Russia would be creating problems there all the time. What for? What is the meaning of Ukrainian membership in NATO? What benefit is there for NATO and the U.S.?”
Putin also issued a stark warning on Georgia.
“Now with Georgia, they believe with the shield of NATO they can restore their territorial integrity. Is this the right way to go, to spread NATO’s military umbrella and let them start military operations in Ankhazia ·and South Ossetia?”
“Guerrilla warfare will start there, as in Afghanistan. Will NATO go to war there? Of course not. The people in Georgia should be forced to resolve their internal problems by other means. They will do it if forced to. There are ethnic problems there that have lasted for centuries. We’re ready to help them restore their territorial integrity, but in ways that make the small ethnic groups feel secure.”
“But if they scare people with the threat of NATO coming there, it won’t work. They won’t be able to do it anyway. You’ll see people coming down from the mountains and shooting in every direction. People dressed like those who danced for you last night. Russia knows this well and has been developing friends there,” Putin warned.
“Georgia should be caused to address this issue by peaceful means. Letting them into NATO will only encourage them to address this by military means, taking up arms. And for Russia, there is always the threat of new military bases and weapon systems in the proximity of our borders.”
In a nutshell, Putin warned that Russia will never accept Georgia or Ukraine in NATO and that it would use pro-Russian segments in both countries to destabilize them.
In retrospect, it seems that Putin was remarkably forthcoming not only in his warning but also in disclosing the means by which Moscow will achieve its goals.
President Bush replied with his own prophecy.
“What I’m concerned about is that U.S.-Russia relations won’t get better than what you and I have. History will show it’s very good. I’m not sure about the next group – not Medvedev, but who follows me.”
Indeed, ever since then, the Russia-US relationship, and the Russia-West relationship more generally, have been on a downward spiral.
Nearly six months after this Bush-Putin meeting, Russia invaded Georgia in August 2008.
Nearly six years after this meeting, Russia annexed Crimea.
In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Currently, more than 22% of Ukrainian territory is under Russian control. Hundreds of thousands have died, millions have been displaced, and the NATO membership for Kyiv is as distant as it was in 2008 when Putin warned the West not to play this game.
Hitchens seems to be right.
“Seldom in history has a war been more provoked,” at least from Russia’s perspective.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from The University of Sheffield, UK.
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- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
