China already possesses the world’s largest maritime fighting force, with 234 warships compared to the U.S. Navy’s 219.
This count of China’s fighting ships includes all known, active-duty, manned, missile- or torpedo-armed ships or submarines displacing more than 1,000 metric tons, including the 22 missile-armed corvettes recently transferred to the China Coast Guard, but not the approximately 80 missile-armed small patrol craft operated by the PLAN.
However, the PLAN was still years behind the US Navy in two critical domains: submarines and aircraft carriers.
In fact, in both maritime domains, the US Navy enjoys a qualitative and quantitative edge.
However, a recent Pentagon report on the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) military developments suggests that China is planning to close the gap, at least in one area – the critical domain of aircraft carriers – in both quantity and quality.
Currently, the US Navy operates half of the world’s aircraft carriers, and till some years ago, it was widely assumed that despite PLAN’s impressive progress in building a naval fleet, Beijing would need several decades to match the might of the US Navy in terms of aircraft carriers.
Though the latest Pentagon analysis suggests that Beijing will close the gap in just one decade, by 2035, China and the US could be operating an equal number of aircraft carriers.
U.S. Vs China’s Carrier Fleet
The US Navy currently operates 11 aircraft carriers, which constitute half of the world’s fleet of 22 carriers.
The US Navy’s fleet of 11 carriers includes 10 Nimitz-class carriers and one, newer, technologically advanced USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78).
China is a distant second with three aircraft carriers. Its latest aircraft carrier, Fujian, entered service last month.
India, the UK, and Italy all operate a fleet of two aircraft carriers. The US Navy’s aircraft carrier fleet is also technologically most advanced.
All of the US Navy’s 11 aircraft carriers are nuclear-powered, giving them unlimited range at sea. Apart from the US, only one other country, France, operates a nuclear-powered carrier, Charles de Gaulle.
China is yet to build a nuclear-powered carrier. However, unconfirmed media reports suggest that Beijing is building a nuclear-powered carrier (Type 004). Beijing has not yet confirmed construction of a new aircraft carrier.
Furthermore, only two countries have built aircraft carriers equipped with the Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS), the US Navy’s Ford class and China’s Fujian.
How China Plans To Compete With The U.S. In Aircraft Carriers
The USS Nimitz, the U.S. Navy’s oldest carrier, is set to retire in May 2026, ending a 50+ year career.
The Ford-class carriers will replace the US Navy’s Nimitz-class carriers. However, the next Ford-class carrier, the USS John F. Kennedy (CVN-79), is facing delays and is now projected to be delivered to the Navy around March 2027.
Following that, the third-in-class, USS Enterprise (CVN-80), is facing even longer delays, now expected in July 2030, due to supply chain and material issues, according to recent Navy budget reports.
By 2035, the US Navy is expected to maintain a fleet of 11 aircraft carriers, a number mandated by US Federal law as necessary for maintaining a global presence.
The mandate appears in Title 10, U.S. Code, Section 8062, and is a congressionally mandated minimum requirement enacted to ensure that the Navy can sustain global operations without leaving major regions unattended.
A fleet of 11 aircraft carriers means the US Navy has four to six carriers fully deployable at any given time.
China, on the other hand, currently has three aircraft carriers. China’s latest, and its first indigenously built aircraft carrier, the Fujian, entered service last month.
“In the maritime domain, the PLA Navy (PLAN) completed the inaugural sea trials of its third aircraft carrier—Fujian, also known as CV-18—in May. This is the PLAN’s first indigenously designed aircraft carrier. It is larger than the PLAN’s previous two aircraft carriers and is its first flat-deck carrier,” the Pentagon report said.
“The PLAN likely intends for Fujian’s future airwing to include the J-35 stealth fighter, J-15T fighter jet, J-15D electronic warfare aircraft, Z-20 helicopter, KJ-600 early warning aircraft, and various UAVs,” it added.
China is also working on its fourth aircraft carrier (Type 004), which, according to analysts, could be China’s first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.
The report also highlighted an exercise between Liaoning and Shandong strike groups in the South China Sea last October, which marked the first time the PLAN had held a dual-carrier drill.
The report also highlighted how China used its aircraft carrier operations to simulate a blockade of Taiwan.
“In 2024, the PLAN was able to deploy an aircraft carrier task group to the east of
Taiwan during JOINT SWORD-2024B that simulated a blockade of the island, presenting a
challenge to potential third-party access during a conflict.”
However, Beijing realises that a fleet of three or four carriers is not sufficient to fulfil its blue-water navy ambitions.
Given that nearly half of the carrier fleet is under repair and maintenance at any given time, Beijing has just two carriers available for active deployment.
However, China aims to build six additional aircraft carriers over the next decade as part of its efforts to match US naval power, the Pentagon said in its report.
“The PLAN aims to produce six aircraft carriers by 2035 for a total of nine,” the report said.
This means that China will have to add one aircraft carrier every 20 months, an ambitious target, but not impossible given China’s tremendous shipbuilding capacity.
However, Alex Luck, a naval analyst in Australia, raised doubts that this rate of aircraft carrier construction is possible.
“There is also this remarkable claim, an intent to produce another six carriers by 2035. We assume Type 004 is under construction at Dalian. No indications yet of new work at JN. Even assuming accelerating parallel work, I am not sure this is achievable,” Luck wrote on social media site X.
Andrew Erickson, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute, wrote on X that while China’s goal of expanding its aircraft carrier fleet is a “big deal,” it does not necessarily mean all nine vessels will be operational by 2035.
Reacting to the Pentagon report, Liu Pengyu, the spokesperson for China’s Embassy in Washington, D.C., told Newsweek, “The future development plans for China’s aircraft carriers will be comprehensively considered based on national defense needs.”
Notably, in the domain of undersea warfare, China can surpass the US even earlier.
China Vs US Submarine Capabilities
According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), the US Navy currently has 71 submarines, all nuclear-powered.
This list includes 14 Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSBNs), 53 Nuclear-Powered attack submarines (SSNs), and four Guided Missile Submarines (SSGNs).
Similarly, according to the NTI, China has 60 submarines, of which only 12 are nuclear-powered.
China has six Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSBNs), six Nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), and 48 Diesel-electric attack submarines (SSKs). Of the 48 SSKs, 12 submarines feature Air-independent propulsion (AIP), a technology that makes them quieter and allows them to stay submerged longer.
While China has not yet operationalized a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, Beijing has nearly half a century of experience with nuclear-powered submarines.
China’s first nuclear-powered submarine, which was a loud and slow vessel, entered service in 1974. Since then, Beijing has made considerable progress in improving its nuclear-powered subs. They are now larger, quieter, and faster.
In recent years, China has made particular strides in nuclear-powered submarines, whose greater speed, range, and endurance give its Navy greater reach.
New models under development include the Type 095, which analysts expect to feature vertical launch tubes capable of accommodating cruise missiles.
According to the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, the capabilities of China’s two new nuclear submarines — the Type 095 and Type 096 — match those used by the US and Russia.
Additionally, China is set to add more submarines each year than the US, meaning it will have far greater submarine strength than the US in the future.
According to the US Navy’s long-range shipbuilding and fleet inventory plan 2025, the US submarine strength will drop to 47 by the end of this decade, before hovering in the mid-50s for many years. The fleet isn’t projected to hit 66 until 2054.
On the other hand, China’s submarine strength will rise in the coming years. A 2023 US Department of Defense (DoD) report anticipates that China will grow its submarine force to 80 units by 2035. Nearly 20 of these subs could be nuclear-powered.
According to a 2024 CSIS report, China’s submarine technology is rapidly improving, and its submarine production capacity is growing.
According to several analysts, China has added between seven and eight Type 093B submarines in just the past three years, a production rate that exceeds the number of attack submarines China has constructed over the past three decades.
When including conventional submarines, such as the new Type 039C, China’s total submarine fleet launched over the past three years exceeds 15, underscoring China’s impressive submarine-building capacity.
Do Greater Numbers Mean Automatic Victory?
It appears that by 2035, PLAN will surpass the US Navy in submarine numbers and match it in aircraft carrier numbers. However, does that mean an automatic dominance for PLAN?
The U.S. Navy has vastly more combat experience and time at sea than the PLAN.
“The United States also has a blue water naval tradition dating back more than two centuries, while the Chinese tradition dates back less than three decades,” said a 2024 CSIS paper.
Furthermore, the US has more alliances in the Indo-Pacific than China. In any potential conflict with China, the US could get assistance from Japan, South Korea, Australia, Taiwan, India, and even the Philippines.
However, PLAN’s rising ambitions are definitely a cause of concern for the US Navy.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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