China is expanding its nuclear arsenal at an unprecedented rate.
According to the latest US assessment, China has likely deployed more than 100 nuclear-capable DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) at three underground launch sites near the Mongolian border.
Furthermore, the draft Pentagon report warns that Beijing has no desire to engage in arms control talks with the US.
Notably, the report comes less than two months before the expiration of the 2010 New START treaty, the last U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control accord, which limits the sides to deploying 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads on 700 delivery systems.
The report says that China had likely put in more than 100 solid-fuelled DF-31 ICBMs in silo fields close to China’s border with Mongolia – the latest in a series of silo sites, Reuters reported.
While the US has earlier reported the existence of the silo fields, this is the first time that the Pentagon has reported that Beijing has loaded nearly 100 solid-fuelled ICBMs at these silo sites.
Notably, solid-fuel missiles like the DF-31 can be launched quickly without lengthy fueling.
According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a Chicago-based non-profit, “China’s old liquid-fuel DF-5 ICBMs take a long time to fuel and align before they can launch. This makes them exceedingly vulnerable to attack. Handling liquid fuel is also cumbersome and dangerous. By transitioning to solid-fuel missile silos, the survivability, operational procedures, and safety of the ICBM force would be improved significantly.”
Additionally, silo-based ICBMs are highly survivable against a first strike, as they’re protected underground.
Their survivability is the primary reason China is on a spree of silo construction.
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Though the draft Pentagon report did not identify any potential targets for these ICBMs, the DF-31 reportedly has a range of 7,000 to 11,700 km. It is capable of hitting the continental US when launched from mainland China.
According to the Arms Control Association, “The DF-31 is a solid-fueled, road-mobile missile with an estimated range of 8,000 kilometers, meaning that, when deployed, it will be able to target portions of the northwestern United States.”
Earlier this year, Trump suggested that he wanted to resume nuclear arms control talks with both Russia and China. He has also indicated that any arms control treaty between the US and Russia that does not involve China would be meaningless.
However, the Pentagon report warns that China is not interested in any arms control talks.
“We continue to see no appetite from Beijing for pursuing such measures or more comprehensive arms control discussions,” the report said.
Earlier in March, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists warned that China is expanding and modernizing its weapons stockpile faster than any other nuclear-armed power.
“China is believed to have the fastest-growing nuclear arsenal among the nine nuclear-armed states; it is the only Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons that is significantly increasing its nuclear arsenal.”
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has also reported on China’s expansion of silo facilities for new missiles.
“Since our previous edition on China in May 2024, China has continued to develop its three new missile silo fields for solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), continued the construction of new silos for its liquid-fuel DF-5 ICBMs, has been developing new variants of ICBMs and advanced strategic delivery systems, and has likely produced excess warheads for these systems once they are deployed.”
Also in March, the commander of the US Strategic Command, General Anthony Cotton, told the US Congress that the directive from Chinese leader Xi Jinping that China’s military be ready to seize Taiwan by 2027 was driving a build-up of nuclear weapons that could be launched from land, air, and sea.
The draft Pentagon report says that China’s nuclear warhead stockpile was still in the low 600s in 2024, which reflected “a slower rate of production when compared to previous years.”
However, the report added that China’s nuclear expansion was ongoing and the country could have over 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.
China has repeatedly stressed that it strictly adheres to a “no first use” policy on nuclear weapons.
However, in its annual report on Chinese military power late last year, the Pentagon said that despite China’s public stance, its strategy probably includes a possible first use in response to conventional attacks that threaten the viability of its nuclear forces, command and control, or that approximate the effect of a nuclear strike.
The Pentagon report warned that Beijing could also consider a nuclear first use if a conventional military defeat in Taiwan “gravely threatens” the very survival of the Communist regime in Beijing.
On Taiwan, the draft Pentagon report said that “China expects to be able to fight and win a war on Taiwan by the end of 2027.”
Beijing is preparing a military strategy to take Taiwan by “brute force,” the draft report said, adding that one option could include strikes 1,500-2,000 nautical miles from China.
“In sufficient volume, these strikes could seriously challenge and disrupt U.S. presence in or around a conflict in the Asia-Pacific region,” it added.
Beijing has repeatedly declared Taiwan to be Chinese territory and emphasized that it is committed to “reunifying” the self-governed island with mainland China, by force if necessary.
The draft report also highlights the rising scope of Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption purges inside the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
It said that anti-corruption measures could affect short-term nuclear readiness but also set the stage for “long-term PLA improvements overall.”
“Investigations have expanded from a 2023 focus on the procurement of rockets and missiles industry to most of China’s defense industry, including China’s nuclear and shipbuilding industry,” it added.
However, China has rejected the report and its findings, saying these are just excuses manufactured by the US to advance its own nuclear program.
Such similar hype from the US side is a consistent tactic, designed to find excuses to accelerate its own nuclear modernization, undermining global strategic stability, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said.
Lin pointed out that the Chinese government recently released a White Paper titled “China’s Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-Proliferation in the New Era,” which comprehensively elaborates China’s nuclear policy and position on arms control.
China steadfastly follows a policy of “no first use” of nuclear weapons and a nuclear strategy that focuses on self-defense. China always keeps its nuclear strength at the minimum level required by national security, and never engages in a nuclear arms race with any country, Lin said.
Lin further noted that, as the world’s largest nuclear superpower in possession of the biggest nuclear arsenal, the pressing task for the US is to earnestly fulfill special and primary responsibilities in nuclear disarmament, make drastic and substantive cuts to its nuclear arsenal, and create conditions for other countries with nuclear weapons to join the nuclear disarmament process.
