In the context of a recent announcement by President Putin that the Oreshnik missile will be placed on combat duty, a Russian military analyst told TASS that Russia has the industrial base to produce “tens, even hundreds” of Oreshnik missiles per year.
Alexander Stepanov, an analyst at the Institute of Law and National Security of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, claimed that the missiles would provide strategic coverage for all critical areas and facilities in Russia’s border regions.
Stepanov believes that if the West escalates the conflict in Ukraine, Russia could use the Oreshnik missile to strike military-industrial targets supporting the escalation in Ukraine and in any NATO country providing military-technical support to Kyiv.
Dark Eagle
In his interaction with TASS, Stepanov also alluded to recent reports that the U.S. Army is poised to deploy the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile. In an earlier EurAsian Times analysis, we covered the missile’s capabilities and the consequent threats it poses.
Stepanov told TASS, “The S-500 is a multifunctional air-defense and missile-defense system, designed to destroy, among other things, low-orbit targets. The missiles will neutralize the enemy’s strategic potential, ensuring reliable interception of hypersonic missiles and the destruction of satellites in low orbits.”
How credible is Stepanov’s claim that the S-500 can reliably intercept hypersonic missiles?
Dark Eagle Trajectory
As previously mentioned, Dark Eagle is a boost-glide hypersonic weapon. As such, it needs to climb to a substantial altitude before the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) can detach and begin its hypersonic (Mach 10) flight to a maximum-range target 3,500 km away.
Consequently, Dark Eagle would remain within the S-500’s detection and engagement zone for a certain period of time.
I sought confirmation from Grok with the following question:
“Dark Eagle: For striking a target at max range of 3,500 km, how high would the missile need to go to sustain speeds exceeding Mach 10?”
Grok’s response was
60 kilometers
To explain the solution for this closed-ended mathematics question:
The Dark Eagle is a boost-glide hypersonic missile. For a range of 3,500 km while sustaining speeds exceeding Mach 10, the glide phase occurs in the upper atmosphere to minimize drag and heating. Based on modeling hypersonic glide trajectories and comparing them with similar systems such as the DF-17, the missile must reach an altitude of approximately 60 km to initiate and sustain the glide phase at these speeds. This altitude allows for low density, reducing deceleration while providing sufficient lift for the range.
Lower altitudes would increase drag, causing the speed to drop below Mach 10 too quickly, while higher altitudes would require more energy from the booster, potentially reducing the effective range. The calculation involves equilibrium glide equations balancing lift, drag, gravity, and centrifugal force, using parameters such as L/D = 2.6 and a ballistic coefficient adjusted for hypersonic vehicles, leading to this altitude for the given conditions.
Glide Body Interception
Going by Grok’s explanation, it is clear that the C-HGB will remain within the S-500’s detection and engagement zone for an adequate period of time. However, this does not imply that the S-500 will reliably intercept the glide body, because the glide body would be maneuvering unpredictably.
S-500 System
The S-500 Prometheus air and missile defense system employs multiple interceptor types, with the long-range ones being the 77N6 and 77N6-N1 missiles.
These are primarily designed for anti-ballistic missile (ABM) and anti-satellite roles, and are capable of engaging hypersonic threats, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and other high-altitude targets.
Their reported range is 500–600 km, depending on target type and configuration.
The system also includes the shorter-range 40N6M interceptor (up to 400 km) for anti-aircraft and cruise missile defense.
A formidable advantage of the S-500 is the ability of its interceptor missiles, such as the 77N6 series, to reach their maximum hypersonic speeds (around 5,500 m/s, or roughly Mach 16) within 4–5 seconds after launch.
However, interception of missiles or aircraft generally relies on calculating a “meeting point” in the sky based on the current speed, direction, and trajectory of both the target and the interceptor. When both are traveling at hypersonic speeds, the rapid rate of closure yields a very small engagement window.
Unpredictable maneuvering further compounds the challenge. The Dark Eagle’s hypersonic glide body can suddenly dip, weave, or change altitude mid-flight, thanks to its design and control surfaces.
An intercept-point prediction algorithm can neither assume a steady trajectory nor reliably anticipate such maneuvers. In either case, it risks chasing a predicted position that has become inaccurate.
At hypersonic speeds, due to frictional heating, the glide body would be enveloped in a glowing plasma cloud that can obscure it from radar and other sensors. This makes it difficult to obtain a clear, real-time lock on its position, speed, or maneuvers.
It is akin to trying to track a car through thick fog while it is swerving on a highway—you might catch brief glimpses, but not enough to accurately predict where it will veer next.
Interceptor Missile’s Active Radar Seeker
The active radar seeker on missiles such as the 40N6 (used in the S-500) provides significant advantages. It enables terminal-phase autonomy, which is particularly useful against unpredictably maneuvering hypersonic threats, as the seeker can adjust in real time to evasive actions or plasma interference at high speeds, improving hit probability compared to semi-active systems that rely on external guidance.
Active radar seekers also enable fire-and-forget launches and allow the system to handle multiple engagements simultaneously.
Conclusion
The S-500 system certainly has the capability to intercept the Dark Eagle. However, that does not imply it can do so reliably.
For reliable interception, the interceptor needs to be substantially faster than the target. The U.S. Army claims that the Dark Eagle can cruise at least at Mach 10, while some reports place its cruise speed as high as Mach 17.
At such speeds, the glide body could be faster than the S-500’s Mach 16 77N6 interceptor, which would reduce the reliability of interception. That said, the actual speed of the glide body would vary depending on range and trajectory.
The most lethal facet of the Dark Eagle is its high mobility. It is possible that the system could eventually feature air mobility. Because of this mobility, the positioning of an S-500 system cannot be dictated by the known locations of deployed Dark Eagle units.
As a result, the U.S. Army could use the Dark Eagle to strike targets not protected by S-500 systems, or even target S-500 systems while they are on the move.
Additionally, Russia currently has only one operational S-500 system. Even with sustained serial production, it is unlikely to field enough systems to protect all strategic conventional and nuclear targets.
- Vijainder K Thakur is a retired IAF Jaguar pilot, author, software architect, entrepreneur, and military analyst.
- This is an Opinion Article. Views personal of the Author
- Follow the author @vkthakur
