US President Donald Trump has announced that he will host Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the White House on September 25, and he hopes to conclude trade deals worth billions of dollars.
“We are working on many Trade and Military Deals with the President, including the large-scale purchase of Boeing aircraft, a major F-16 Deal, and a continuation of the F-35 talks, which we expect to conclude positively,” he wrote on Truth Social.
This will be the first state visit of Erdogan to the US since 2019, the year Turkey was evicted from the F-35 program over buying the Russian air defense system S-400 despite repeated warnings from the US that such a move would invite Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions.
Sources suggest that Boeing and Lockheed Martin could be major beneficiaries of trade and military deals between the two countries.
On the commercial side, Boeing could win an order for as many as 250 passenger jets from Turkish national carrier, Turkish Airlines, consisting of a mix of Boeing 737 MAX and around 75 Boeing 787 Dreamliner jets.
Notably, Turkish Airlines also ordered 220 Airbus aircraft in December 2023. The carrier already has an impressive fleet of nearly 400 aircraft, flying to over 340 destinations in 130 countries worldwide. The airline now wants to double the size of its fleet to an impressive 800 aircraft within the next eight years.
On the military side, talks can proceed on the purchase of 40 F-16 Block 70 Viper fighter jets from the US, along with modernization kits for 79 existing F-16s. This package was approved in principle by the US Congress in 2024.
Separately, the F-35 fighter jet program may also be on the agenda during the Erdoğan-Trump meeting. Turkey was excluded from the program in 2019 due to the purchase of the S-400 air defense system. However, the Trump administration is reportedly open to reintroducing Türkiye to the program under limited conditions.
As per reports, Turkey is interested in buying 40 F-35 stealth fighter jets from the US.
While Turkey’s interest in buying the F-35s is not new, the possibility of Ankara’s reentry in the F-35 program has generated a heated debate among security experts, who are warning about its long-term repercussions on the balance of power in the Middle East, in the Mediterranean, and even on US and EU security in the region.
However, the most significant consequence could be that it sets the stage for the world’s first F-35 vs F-35 clash.
F-35 Vs F-35 Clash In The Making
Despite being a NATO member, Turkey has in the last decade charted an independent foreign policy, often at odds with fellow NATO members, the US, the EU, and Israel.
While Turkey’s geopolitical interests often clash with all these countries, with Israel, Greece, and Cyprus, this clash of interests has the potential to turn into a real, physical war.
Among them, Israel is one of the US’s most significant non-NATO allies, Greece is a member of NATO, and Cyprus is an EU member.
Furthermore, Israel has a fleet of 45 F-35I Adir, a highly customized version of F-35 to suit the particular operational needs of Israel. Tel Aviv is slated to receive five more F-35s by next year, completing the initial order of 50 F-35s.
Additionally, last year, Israel signed a deal with the US to purchase 25 more F-35s, with the deliveries slated to begin in 2028.
Since October 7, 2023, Hamas terror attacks, Israel has attacked six countries in the Middle East, among them Palestine (Gaza), Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Yemen, and lastly Qatar.
Speculation is rife that Turkey could be next on Israel’s firing line. Not only do Israel’s and Turkey’s interests clash in Syria and Cyprus, but Ankara has provided economic, diplomatic, operational, and ideological support to Hamas and has hosted senior Hamas figures for years.
Last week, Israel reportedly transferred a second Barak MX air defense system to Cyprus, which can engage aerial threats in the range of 150 km. Notably, the shortest distance between Cyprus and Turkey is just 85 km.
Furthermore, its radar provides extended surveillance across a range of 460km. This 460 km range offers a “surveillance umbrella,” capable of looking deep inside Turkish airspace.
Effectively, through the Barak MX AD system, Israel can now monitor Turkish airspace and get real-time updates on Turkish activity.
The transfer of the Barak MX AD system to Cyprus was preceded by a provocative article by Shay Gal, a former vice president of external relations at Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), which manufactures the Barak MX, that Israel should reconsider its approach toward Cyprus and devise military plans to “liberate” the island’s north from Turkish forces.
“Israel, in coordination with Greece and Cyprus, must prepare a contingency operation for liberating the island’s north,” Gal wrote.
“Such an operation would neutralize Turkish reinforcement capabilities from the mainland, eliminate air-defense systems in northern Cyprus, destroy intelligence and command centres, and ultimately remove Turkish forces, restoring internationally recognized Cypriot sovereignty.”
Turkey strongly protested the transfer of the Barak MX AD system to Cyprus.
A Turkish defense official told Arab News that Israeli weapons in Cyprus may lead to “dangerous consequences.”
Arda Mevlutoglu, a prominent Turkish defense analyst, said that the Barak MX poses a significant threat to Turkish air and ground forces both in Cyprus and across the wider eastern Mediterranean, as its radar is also capable of detecting artillery, mortar, and rocket battery fire within 100km.
Cyprus is just one of the areas where the regional interests of Israel and Turkey are at odds with each other. Another sticky point is Syria.
Israel is determined to increase its area of influence in Syria to southern Damascus, where a Turkish-aligned government took power in December last year.
Earlier in April, the UK-based Middle East Eye (MEE) reported that Turkey has begun efforts to take control of Syria’s Tiyas air base, also known as T4, and is preparing to deploy air defense systems there.
According to sources cited by the outlet, Turkey plans to deploy a “Hisar-type air defense system” at the base “to provide air cover” before beginning reconstruction and expansion and deploying drones, including ones “with extended strike capabilities.”
If Turkey gets F-35s, then a clash over Syria between Turkish and Israeli F-35s can not be ruled out. A Turkey armed with F-35s would also mean that Israel would not be able to act with impunity in the Middle East.
Similarly, Greece, a member of NATO and the EU, signed a deal in July 2024 for 20 F-35 aircraft (with options for up to 40 more). Deliveries are expected to begin in 2028.
Turkey and Greece also share a troubled relationship with overlapping territorial claims in the Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean.
Most of these Aegean islands were ceded to Greece under the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne, which also imposed conditions of demilitarization on Athens.
Tensions escalated in the 1970s amid resource discoveries (e.g., potential oil and gas) and differing interpretations of maritime law, particularly the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), ratified by Greece in 1995 but not by Turkey.
Again, the two countries nearly went to war in Cyprus in 1974, when Turkey militarily occupied the northern part of the island. Since then, Cyprus, an EU member, has been divided into two parts: the internationally recognized southern Cyprus, and the Turkish-supported Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).
This makes Turkey the only country that has illegally occupied the territory of an EU member state.
The territorial disputes between Greece and Turkey have led to near-conflicts in 1987, 1996 (Imia/Kardak islets), and 2020. Turkey is also frequently accused of violating Greek airspace and its Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) in the Aegean Sea.
Incidentally, the EU Parliament has repeatedly criticized Turkey for violating Greek airspace and maritime boundaries.
“Turkey is guilty of infringing the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and, in particular, Article 121 thereof, which states that the exclusive economic zone of an island is determined in accordance with the provisions applicable to other land territory.”
“The EU and its Member States have ratified the Convention, which is recognised by the US as a codification of customary international law binding on all countries. However, Turkey has still to sign it…Turkey is now attempting to arbitrarily move its EEZ border up to that of Libya, effectively eliminating the Greek EEZ borders around Crete and the Dodecanese islands and those of Cyprus. That is a blatant infringement of international law and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea,” the EU Parliament said in its statement.
According to eKathimerini.com, the Hellenic National Defense General Staff documented 106 incidents of Athens Flight Information Region (FIR) violations by Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles and maritime patrol aircraft between August and October last year.
In fact, ever since the alleged violation of Estonian airspace by the Russian aircraft last week, the Greek netizens have been quick to point out the EU’s double standards on airspace violations, aggressively condemning the Russian violations but maintaining a deafening silence on Turkish airspace violations.
If Turkey and Greece both are armed with F-35 jets, then this could escalate the situation in the Mediterranean and set the stage for an F-35 vs F-35 clash over Cyprus or in the Aegean Sea.
Furthermore, there is the additional danger of Turkey sharing sensitive F-35 information with US adversaries, such as Russia and China.
Turkey is yet to return the S-400 system, and even if the system is not operational, there is always the danger of sensitive F-35 information leaking to Russia, with whom Turkey has maintained close strategic relations.
Due to all these reasons, the decision to reintroduce Turkey to the F-35 program is fraught with unpredictable risks, and the US should proceed on the matter with great caution.
The US decision to arm Turkey with F-35s could disturb the balance of power in the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean Sea, could damage US strategic relations with Israel and the EU, and could set the stage for an F-35 vs F-35 clash.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
- VIEWS PERSONAL OF THE AUTHOR.
- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
