Germany might reportedly be exploring a new partner to join its sixth-generation FCAS (Future Combat Air System) initiative due to an impasse over work-sharing arrangements with France that threatens the future of the program.
The trilateral collaborative effort between Germany, France, and Spain has been moving at a woefully sluggish speed since its inception. The program, with an estimated value of more than 100 billion euros (about USD 116.85 billion), now stands the risk of missing the mid-2040 deadline due to disagreements over work sharing between industry partners, Dassault Aviation (representing France) and Airbus (representing Germany and Spain).
If a deal is not reached between the two sides by the end of this year, Germany will look into the option of replacing France with another international partner, POLITICO reported.
Citing informed sources, the report claimed the German defense ministry brought up FCAS in conversations with Airbus last week. The discussions revealed German discontent with what it views as a French attempt at usurping the lion’s share of the work.
Airbus was told that the German government is assessing two options: either going it alone with Spain, or pursuing a potential partnership with Sweden or the United Kingdom.
Additionally, the report states that Luftwaffe officials briefed Bundestag lawmakers earlier this week, according to an official in the legislature. “At some point [the German] parliament will have to say: ‘Either we need this aircraft or we don’t,’” Social Democratic lawmaker Andreas Schwarz told POLITICO, warning that production has not even begun and “many unforeseen problems” are still likely to arise.
Why Are France & Germany Fighting?
The FCAS is a ‘system of systems’ program that includes a next-generation fighter (NGF), remote carriers or adjunct aircraft, and a combat cloud—a multi-domain capable, data-rich network enabling cross-platform information sharing.
The program is divided into seven technical “pillars,” each headed by a different business and including contributions from subcontractors.
Airbus is in charge of the “loyal wingman” remote-carrier drone design, new cloud capabilities, and stealth technology, while Dassault is in charge of the crewed NGF, which is at the heart of the FCAS program. Meanwhile, Safran is developing a new jet engine for the fighter, and Spain-based Indra is in charge of the sensor systems.
The program is currently in a deadlock because Dassault Aviation and Airbus are unable to agree on the work share on the development of the New Generation Fighter (NGF).
Dassault Chief Eric Trappier has refused to share workload on the fighter, saying that only his company has the necessary skills to develop the NGF. He believes that a partnership centered on sharing work might result in a less-than-ideal technology solution.
With required expertise and decades of experience in designing end-to-end fighter jets, with little to no outside collaboration, the Dassault CEO has been reluctant to cede space to German and Spanish defense majors.
In contrast, Germany, represented by Airbus, has been unwilling to allow Dassault to take the bigger share, which would benefit the French contractor and leave little for the German industry.
Some reports in German media have noted that France and Dassault are demanding an 80% work share of the work on the crewed fighter–a claim France has denied.
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Nonetheless, the Dassault chief has also signalled that his company could go solo in developing a next-generation fighter jet, as previously reported by the EurAsian Times.
Currently, the program is in Phase 1B, during which industry partners are working on the research, design, and development of the NGF, encompassing extensive work on propulsion, sensors, and communication systems. Once the development phase is complete, the program will enter Phase 2, which will involve creating a demonstrator.
According to previous reports, Phase 2 is scheduled to be announced in 2026, with the first flight of the demonstrator planned for 2029. However, this can happen only if the two contractors can iron out their differences.
Earlier, Belgium, which is currently an observer in the program, said that it is “reconsidering” its position due to the arrogance displayed by Dassault Aviation CEO Eric Trappier. The decision was a response to Eric Trappier’s criticism of a Belgian F-35 purchase, as reported in detail by the EurAsian Times at the time.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz discussed the FCAS with his Spanish counterpart, Pedro Sánchez, this week. “We share the assessment that the current situation is unsatisfactory. We are not advancing with this project,” Merz said. “We are both speaking with the French government, and we want a solution as soon as possible.”
The defense ministers from France, Germany, and Spain are anticipated to meet next month to discuss the details of the FCAS, which will directly influence the future of the program and whether it goes into Phase 2, which will see the development and construction of a demonstrator aircraft.
However, with the FCAS in deadlock at this point, it could be an opportunity for India to join the European sixth-generation program.
Does India Have A Chance?
Germany is considering two partners to join the FCAS: Britain and Sweden.
The United Kingdom, for one, is already working on a sixth-generation fighter program, GCAP (Global Combat Air Program), along with Italy and Japan. It is unclear how the UK-based contractor BAE Systems could participate in two rival fighter jet programs without having a conflict of interest.
Sweden, which is no longer a member of GCAP, could contribute to the FCAS through Saab, which manufactures the Gripen fighter and has experience with sensors, avionics, and lightweight airframes.
Saab has been conducting conceptual studies for future fighter systems, including manned and unmanned solutions in a system-of-systems perspective, technology development, and demonstrations.
Notably, Sweden allegedly walked away from the program due to differences with partners regarding the work share, among other things.
“We are on the margins (of FCAS), and our involvement has not been as intensive as we thought it would be at first. We are not out of the program, but Sweden has hibernated while we see how the UK, Italy, and potentially Japan set up the program. I am not sure how this will play out,” Saab’s president and CEO, Michael Johansson, said at the time.
Germany’s plans may or may not work out. The feasibility of France not being in the arrangement is suspicious. For one, Germany has not designed and built a crewed combat jet outside of a large consortium in decades, and Spain has never developed a fighter on its own, nor has Belgium. At this point, Spain has also not clarified whether it would be okay to go it alone with Germany if France exited the FCAS.
These issues notwithstanding, this could still be an opportunity for India to seek membership in the sixth-generation fighter program, to close the capability gap with its adversaries—China and Pakistan. China already operates two different stealth fighters, J-20 and J-35A, and is also likely to arm Pakistan with the new J-35A.
India is developing an indigenous fifth-generation fighter AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft), but it is unlikely to become operational before the mid-2030s. The country was earlier mulling the purchase of a foreign fifth-generation fighter, but the Indian Air Force (IAF) has now proposed the acquisition of 100+ 4.5th-generation Rafale fighters instead.
By the time India indicts its own fifth-generation stealth fighter, China would be flying a sixth-generation combat aircraft. Therefore, participating in the sixth-generation FCAS could help India bridge the gap into the future. Additionally, it could also help in integrating some evolving sixth-generation technologies into the AMCA over time.
“China already has over 300 J-20 fifth-generation fighters. They are working on 400 by 2027 and 1,000 by 2035. India’s AMCA may join service only around 2035. Pakistan is seeking the J-31 from China by 2029. India cannot be left behind. While India takes its call on the fifth-generation aircraft, it also has to start work on sixth-generation technologies,” said Air Marshal Anil Chopra, veteran fighter test pilot and former Director-General of the Center for Air Power Studies.
“Many countries have collaborative routes. Should India join the French-led FCAS program? These are hard calls to make. Collaboration means sharing costs and risks,” he added.
When asked if the FCAS route would be feasible for India, Air Marshal Chopra said, “Yes, India should consider joining the FCAS, but it will all depend on the work share. The FCAS partners have already had work share issues with France, which has been trying to dominate. India walked out of the Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) program with Russia due to work share-related issues.”
India could seek a partnership in the FCAS even if France does not exit the program, especially since France has emerged as the most reliable partner for New Delhi in recent years. Since the IAF already operates the Rafale and has now signed an agreement for Safran engines, joining the FCAS may further boost that partnership, easing integration.
However, if that doesn’t materialise, it has the option to swing to the other side, into the GCAP, as it was offered by Japan earlier this year.
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