Notwithstanding the Chinese and Pakistani claims about the J-10C’s supremacy over Rafale fighter jets, the real lesson from the brief four-day war between India and Pakistan is that investing in building “kill chains” is more vital than investing in expensive fighter aircraft, according to a military expert.
Pakistan has claimed that it shot down five Indian fighter jets, including three Rafales, on the night of May 6, when India launched air strikes on multiple targets in Pakistan to avenge the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack.
Though unverified, Pakistan claims that it shot down Indian jets using Chinese J-10C fighter aircraft and PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles.
India has not acknowledged any losses yet, and Islamabad has not provided credible evidence to support its claims. However, China has accepted the Pakistani version to assert the supremacy of its combat jets.
If the Pakistani claims are accurate, then this would be the first loss of a Rafale fighter jet in a combat situation and the first combat kill for the J-10C.
The Chinese military bloggers are celebrating the ‘unverified’ success of the J-10C over the Rafale. The broad sentiment here is unmistakable: after the May 6 clash, Chinese combat aviation has proved its worth.
Since then, multiple unconfirmed reports have suggested that countries ranging from Indonesia to the UAE might be reconsidering their Rafale orders. Then again, these are speculations and not confirmed reports.
However, an expert on the Chinese military has claimed that even if the J-10C shot down one or even two Rafales on the night of May 6, it tells us nothing about the Rafale’s weakness or strength but rather everything about how the face of air battle has changed with the arrival of networked warfare.
Put simply, a superior ‘kill chain’ might have downed a Rafale (if at all), and not a superior fighter jet.
A Superior ‘Kill Chain’
Speaking on a podcast, Michael Dahm, a senior fellow at AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies and expert on Chinese military affairs, said that the effectiveness of the ‘kill chain’ may have been more important than the capabilities of the specific fighters.
The event tells us “absolutely nothing,” Dahm said, adding that it has still not prevented the media from running with the story that, since the Chinese J-10 shot down a French-made Rafale fighter, it must be significantly better.
The popular press still has the idea that to engage a fighter, you have to see it first, and that it’s all about dogfights, but that’s not what happened, Dahm said.
He emphasized that no one has the complete facts yet, as everyone is receiving information from India and Pakistan only, and these sources are perhaps not very reliable at this time.
“Both sides are posturing, and we have to be really suspicious about what they say.”
He also said that “Meteor is a beast.” “Solid-fuel, ramjet engine, travels at Mach 4. It has a wicked ‘no escape zone.’ Once it gets close to you, you can’t get away.”
Dahm pointed out there was no indication that a Rafale was shot down with a Meteor missile still intact.
“They found the wreckage. There was a shorter-range [infrared] missile found in the wreckage, but there was no indication that the Meteor was there. Now, maybe the Rafale had a Meteor, and it fired it. Maybe it wasn’t carrying one at all. But I don’t think this really tells us anything about how good the J-10 is compared to the Rafale, or how good the Chinese technology is compared to the Western tech.”
He said that when we have the whole picture, it might tell us a story about “systems integration” and how well Pakistan has done in systems integration compared to how well India has done it.
“India has a much bigger Air Force. But it’s a hodgepodge of Western technology, Israeli technology, and Russian technology, with a lot of Indian produced indigenous technology. So, systems integration on the Indian side is a lot harder.”
He pointed out an article in the China Space News, a Chinese defense industry magazine. The article said the “Pakistan Air Force deployed – ‘Locked by A, Launched by B, and Guided by C’ combat system.”
So, Pakistan integrated ground radars, fighter jets, and Airborne Early Warning aircraft.
The ‘kill chain,’ Dahm said, may have started with a ground radar, which illuminated the Indian target. Then, the J-10 launched its missile, probably at a range, and finally, an Airborne Early Warning aircraft used a midcourse datalink to update and guide the missile to the Indian fighter.
“A long-range shot, beyond visual range.”
Dahm also pointed out another theory that suggests that the two Air Forces had different rules of engagement.
According to this theory, the Rafale was conducting an air-to-ground bombing mission and did not have the escort mission it should have had. It may also have lacked situational awareness, as it was focused on its air-to-ground mission.
“As it turned out, it was jumped upon by Pakistani aircraft, firing missiles at range.”
According to this theory, while the Rafale was cleared for only an air-to-ground bombing mission, Pakistani aircraft were cleared to engage Indian aircraft if they conduct any hostile act.
Another possible element could be the use of electromagnetic warfare.
“Pakistan seems to have very recently converted several Chinese airborne early warning and control aircraft into electronic warfare aircraft,” Dahm said, adding that those aircraft could be manipulating the electromagnetic environment.
“What does this say about Chinese technology versus Western technology? Probably not a whole lot, but it probably says a lot more about systems of systems, about training, about tactics … about all of those… difficult-to-quantify things,” rather than the capabilities of the J-10 versus the Rafale, Dahm said.
Rafale Downed By Chinese Air Warfare Doctrine?
Writing for The Telegraph, Islamabad-based foreign correspondent Memphis Barker suggested that the Rafale was downed by Chinese air warfare doctrine.
On May 6, the Indian fighter jets were met with “Chinese J-10C fighters, sleek and silent, PL-15 missiles, Mach 5 hunters with over 300 km range, Erieye radars, linking every shooter into a single deadly nervous system. What India saw was not just Pakistani pilots—it was China’s entire air warfare doctrine stretching from Skardu to Pasni.”
“This wasn’t a dogfight. It was an ambush. The Pakistani Air Force, aided by Chinese targeting satellites and AWACS, executed a sensor-fusion kill. The Rafales never got a lock, never even saw their adversary. When the missiles hit, it was already over.”
Barker suggested that the Chinese satellites, Saab Erieye AWACS patrolling silently, J-10C fighters flying in passive mode, PL-15 missiles, and sensors linking them all, created a “lethal kill chain.” “The Rafale didn’t even know it was targeted until the missile was 50 km away.”
“It wasn’t a dogfight… It was a doctrinal collapse.”
According to these theories, if Pakistani claims are correct and a Rafale was indeed shot down, then it was not due to some weakness in the Rafale or a lack of training or pilot skills on the Indian side, but rather because Pakistan has created a much better ‘system of systems,’ a more efficient networked force where all platforms are integrated and communicate with each other, and a more effective ‘kill chain.’
However, as Dahm warned in his podcast, we must wait for all the facts to emerge before reaching any conclusion.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
