In a historic milestone, the Indian economy has touched the magic figure of US$4 trillion, making it the fifth-largest economy in the world.
According to the latest estimates, India’s real GDP will be US$4.3 trillion in 2025, just behind Japan’s US$4.4 trillion and Germany’s US$4.9 trillion. Given the growth trajectory, India is poised to surpass Japan in 2025 and Germany by 2027.
Notably, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India has doubled its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the past decade, growing by 105 percent from US$2.1 trillion in 2015 to US$4.3 trillion in 2025.
This rapid growth makes India one of the fastest-growing large economies in the world, ahead of the US and China. During the last decade, the US recorded a GDP growth of 66 percent, and China’s GDP recorded a GDP growth of 76 percent.
The IMF data show that the United Kingdom saw a modest 28 percent GDP growth during the same period. France’s economy expanded by 38 percent, rising from USD 2.4 trillion in 2015 to USD 3.3 trillion in 2025.
Despite the sanctions and the war, the Russian economy grew by an impressive 57 percent, the Australian economy by 58 percent, and the Spanish economy by 50 percent.
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In fact, France’s economy makes an interesting comparison with the Indian economy.
In 2015, France’s GDP stood at USD 2.4 trillion, ahead of India’s USD 2.1 trillion GDP. However, by 2025, France’s GDP stood at USD 3.3 trillion, whereas India’s GDP was at US$4.3 trillion, making the Indian economy approximately 30 % bigger than the French economy.
Similarly, the UK GDP stood at USD 2.9 trillion in 2015, ahead of India. However, by 2025, the UK’s GDP of USD 3.7 trillion was behind India’s USD 4.3 trillion.
One decade ago, India was the world’s seventh-largest economy. In 2025, India is the world’s fifth-largest economy, as it overtook France and the UK in the last decade.
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India’s current GDP of USD 4.3 trillion is just marginally behind Japan’s USD 4.4 trillion GDP. However, Japan’s GDP has remained stagnant in the past decade. Where India’s GDP has more than doubled in the past decade, Japan’s GDP stood at USD 4.4 trillion in 2015 and is still at USD 4.4 trillion.
Given that India’s GDP is expected to grow at over 6.5% in 2025, India is set to overtake Japan and become the world’s fourth-largest economy in the next few months.
However, to overtake Germany will take a little longer. In 2025, Germany’s GDP stood at USD 4.9 trillion. As per the current growth trajectory of India and Germany, India will overtake Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy in 2027.
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A Long Way Behind China and the US
Despite India’s impressive growth, India is a long way behind China. In 2015, the Chinese economy, at USD 11.1 trillion, was more than five times bigger than the Indian economy.
In 2025, the Chinese economy stood at USD 19.5 trillion compared to the Indian GDP of USD 4.3 trillion. The Chinese economy is still around 4.5 times bigger than the Indian economy.
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However, the Chinese economy has slowed considerably in the past decade. Between 2015 and 2025, while the Indian GDP grew by 105 %, the Chinese GDP grew by 77%.
The US remains the world’s largest economy and will remain at that spot in the foreseeable future. At USD 30.3 trillion, the US economy is around 1.5 times bigger than the Chinese economy. However, given that the Chinese economy is slowing and the US is still growing at an impressive rate, the US will remain the world’s largest economy for the foreseeable future.
India’s USD1 trillion Jump; 60 Years To 1.5 Years
It took India nearly 60 years to become a trillion-dollar economy in 2007. However, once the Indian economy touched the magic USD1 trillion mark, it picked up pace. Compared to the 60 years India took to reach USD 1 trillion, India doubled its economy from USD 1 trillion to USD 2 trillion in just seven years.
India became a USD3 trillion economy in 2021. Though it should have reached that milestone earlier, the COVID pandemic slowed India’s growth. However, India added the next USD 1 trillion in just four years.
Going forward, India can add USD 1 trillion to its economy every 1.5 years. According to India’s current growth trajectory, India could become a USD 10 trillion economy by 2032.
According to an IDBI report, India’s future growth will be fueled by robust manufacturing demand, export potential, and supportive government policies, including Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes.
Commenting on India’s economy crossing the USD 4 trillion mark, the ruling national party BJP commented: “This extraordinary achievement is a testament to the decisive leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the relentless efforts of his government. Through proactive economic policies, bold structural reforms, and a sustained focus on ease of doing business, the Modi government has propelled India to the position of the world’s fastest-growing major economy—an accolade no previous government had secured since independence.”
Historically, India and China were the world’s two largest economies before colonialism in the 18th and 19th centuries upended the picture. However, nearly 70 years after breaking free of colonialism, both China and India are once again set to become the world’s second and third-largest economies, respectively.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from The University of Sheffield, UK.
- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
